Some weather prediction computer models are run at a spatial scale that is able to begin to resolve individual thunderstorms. The primary such model in the US is the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). The featured map displays a simulated depiction of RADAR reflectivity valid this afternoon at 6 PM. While the HRRR model does not explicitly predict RADAR reflectivity, it does predict many of the hydrometer particles that cause returns on weather RADAR. So with a bit of model output post-processing and assumptions, a simulated depiction of forecasted RADAR reflectivity can be made. The forecast shown for today predicts strong thunderstorms in western Iowa at this time.

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Tags:   hrrr