The HRRR model is a recently developed weather prediction system run by NOAA that forecasts weather out for 15 hours and run 24 times per day (each hour). For any given time, there are 15 previous forecasts made for that time. On Tuesday, successive HRRR runs were predicting storm development in western Iowa just northeast of Council Bluffs. The featured map displays the frequency of where the forecasted storm development would be at 4 PM. The higher percentages imply more insistence that the model believed storm development would occur at that location. The inset image shows the actual RADAR presentation at 4 PM and sure enough, the HRRR was mostly correct with the initial development! Please note that a smoother was applied to the data to aid in this comparison.

Voting:
Good = 25
Bad = 11
Abstain = 6

Tags:   hrrr