September was very dry for Iowa, perhaps the driest on record since at least 1893. One may wonder if this will continue into October. The featured chart compares the Iowa statewide precipitation for the past 15 days of September vs about the first 15 days of October. Quadrant frequencies are computed by dividing up the observations by their respective simple averages. The below average for both periods has the highest frequency by a good margin, so having October start off dry as well would be more likely than not. The actual near term forecast is bone dry with some dangerous fire weather conditions upcoming this week.

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