After the very warm July, we were nearing "metaphysical certaintude" that this year would be the warmest on record for Des Moines. Most of August has been a different story and we have lost some of our lead over the next warmest year on record (1931). The featured chart presents the year-to-date average temperature along with a spaghetti plot of scenarios to finish the year with based on previous year's observations. The number of scenarios that finish this year warmer than 1931 can be thought of as probability. As of today, this probability is near 75% which is down from a few weeks ago. The bottom chart tracks this probability over time showing that July certainly put us on track to be the warmest, but August is slacking off a bit.

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