The featured plot is an attempt to illustrate the chances of recovering accumulated rainfall departures before 1 August. The plot shows 1 May - 1 Aug rainfall departures for Iowa stations and years which had 1 May - 14 Jun rainfall deficits of 2 to 4 inches (like many spots in Iowa this year). The black line then denotes the chance that for the period of 1 May - 1 Aug a location will end up at or above normal for precipitation for the period. Confused yet? The hand waving bottom line is that the chance is roughly 10% of at least breaking even and 90% chance that locations currently 2-4 inches below normal will still be below normal on 1 August.

Voting:
Good = 17
Bad = 3