Yesterday, the Storm Prediction Center issued their Day 4 convective outlook and covered much of Iowa with a 15% probability of a severe storm within 25 miles of a given point within the outlook area. It is certainly early in the season for such a risk to include Iowa at four days out as shown by the featured chart presenting the period between the first such risk for Iowa and last risk by year. Only 2022 had an earlier such risk, by one day for 5 March. Unfortunately, you may recall the horrific weather that day with the Winterset EF4 Tornado being the most significant. At the moment, the main tornado threat appears to stay south of Iowa.

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