

000 

WUUS02 KWNS 250731

PTSDY2



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

IOWA MESONET SYNTHETIC PRODUCT FROM SWO V2021APR07

0231 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 1998



VALID TIME 261200Z - 271200Z



PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1



... TORNADO ...

&&



... HAIL ...

&&



... WIND ...



&&



CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1



... CATEGORICAL ...



SLGT   46738677 45818811 45638945 45159148 44759479 45719597 

       47309463 48789338

TSTM   43538328 41838623 40038828 35608891 34628754 35038520 

       36778023 38337550 99999999 29269486 32579594 33649677 

       33749848 29620105 99999999 32281270 36081516 39501708 

       40941706 43501430 48021236



&&

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM

40 ENE MQT IMT RHI 20 N EAU 20 NE RWF 30 WSW AXN 20 SE BJI

15 N INL.



GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E MBS 10 NNE SBN

CMI MKL 10 SSE MSL CHA 35 SE PSK SBY ...CONT... GLS 35 WNW TYR

30 SW DUA 15 S SPS 20 NNW DRT ...CONT... 45 S GBN LAS U31

25 NNW BAM SUN 40 S CTB.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...N CNTRL U.S...

RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW

DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM S CNTRL CANADA INTO WRN GREAT LAKES REGION

DURING PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM A

SRN MANITOBA/WRN ND LINE AT 26/12Z TO A N CNTRL MN/CNTRL SD LINE BY

27/00Z.  WLY WINDS IN LOW/MID LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT

ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR AS FAR AS E CNTRL MN BY 27/00Z.  THIS

FACTOR ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW SHOULD

CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT...PARTICULARLY

OVER NRN AND CNTRL MN.  WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT

ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN SLIGHT RISK AREA AND MODEL HODOGRAPHS

SUGGEST SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NRN MN AND NWRN WI.  PRESENT

INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO

DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH

ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY REACHING NWRN WI AND WRN

UPPER MI BEFORE DIMINISHING.  @

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