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000 

WUUS02 KWNS 050811

PTSDY2



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

IOWA MESONET SYNTHETIC PRODUCT FROM SWO V2021APR07

0311 AM CDT SUN APR 05 1998



VALID TIME 061200Z - 071200Z



PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1



... TORNADO ...

&&



... HAIL ...

&&



... WIND ...



&&



CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1



... CATEGORICAL ...



SLGT   40259298 38969263 37239274 35739285 34689399 33699463 

       33649677 35409733 37759709 39309646 40149533 40259298

TSTM   46608726 41868761 38788992 34639235 32509447 32399659 

       33729785 37309812 40019793 44289835 44660111 45140401 

       45161110 46451439 48731564 99999999 99999999 48861197 

       47970976 47800600 47680125 48679768 99999999 34441187 

       34501430 36901778 38641967 40912024 42621980 43581825 

       43561581 42161290 40450970 40520755 39210658 37150739 

       34441187



&&

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM

25 WNW IRK 25 WNW COU 35 E SGF 40 SSE HRO 35 E PGO 40 WNW TXK

30 SW DUA 15 E OKC 20 ENE ICT 15 NE MHK 15 ENE FNB 25 WNW IRK.



GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE MQT CGX

10 SE ALN 10 SW LIT 15 NE GGG 35 SSE DAL 40 ESE SPS 25 E P28

35 NNW CNK 10 SW HON 45 WNW PIR 25 WSW REJ 35 N WEY 35 SSW MSO

70 WNW FCA ...CONT... ...CONT... 25 NE CTB 40 S HVR 40 SE GGW

20 N P24 55 NNW GFK.



GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE PRC 25 SE EED

45 SE BIH 25 SE TVL 40 NNE SVE 40 NE 4LW 40 E BNO 20 E BOI

30 W MLD 10 W VEL CAG 15 E ASE 20 E DRO 35 ESE PRC.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/MO VALLEY/ARKLATEX VICINITY...

STRONG SRN BRANCH FORECASTED ACROSS SRN ROCKIES INTO TX THROUGH

PERIOD WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS

THE PLAINS STATES. SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD

THROUGH PLAINS STATES INTO MO/UPPER MS AND RED RIVER VALLEYS WITH

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH FROM SERN TX COAST TO

AS FAR N AS CENTRAL MN. WIND SPEEDS NEAR 850 MB WILL RANGE FROM 30

TO 40 KT THROUGH N CENTRAL TX INTO SWRN MO AND EXPECT LOW LEVEL

THETA E ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXCEEDING 60 F

AS FAR N AS SERN KS/WRN MO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FACTOR PLUS

DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN LATE

AFTERNOON MOST UNSTABLE CAPES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OVER SLIGHT

RISK AREA WITH VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AS FAR N AS SWRN MN.

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