

000 

WUUS01 KWNS 300557

PTSDY1



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

IOWA MESONET SYNTHETIC PRODUCT FROM SWO V2021APR07

1157 PM CST SAT NOV 29 1997



VALID TIME 301200Z - 011200Z



PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1



... TORNADO ...

&&



... HAIL ...

&&



... WIND ...



&&



CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1



... CATEGORICAL ...



SLGT   29188310 30508136 99999999 27658041 26228186

TSTM   29738503 30858459 31748472 32418554 32438686 32828810 

       33749129 34999192 37239265 38509251 39769182 40308968 

       40408748 40238538 39908420 38058294 36878217 36778113 

       37337920 39457456 99999999 34752056 34631808 34221583 

       33611471 32651460 32221460



&&

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM

30 S CTY 20 E JAX ...CONT... VRB 25 S FMY.



GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 35 E MAI

35 WNW ABY 15 SSW AUO 10 NE SEM 40 SW TCL 25 NW GLH 25 NE LIT

40 E SGF 20 WSW JEF 35 WSW UIN 25 S PIA 15 NNE DNV MIE DAY

30 SW HTS 30 NNE TRI 35 SW PSK LYH ACY.



GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VBG PMD 45 NNE TRM

BLH YUM 30 S YUM.

//

.. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION..

- - - SYNOPSIS - - -

PROGRESSIVE AND HIGH-AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.

LARGE CYCLONE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS -- WILL

ACCELERATE EASTWARD OFF MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...PRECEDED BY SURFACE

COLD FRONT.  AT SURFACE.. CYCLOGENESIS CURRENTLY EVIDENT ALONG

FRONTAL ZONE NEAR GEORGIA COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY PERIOD

AS LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD PARALLEL TO AND JUST OFFSHORE FROM

COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA/DELMARVA.  BELIEVE SURFACE

WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN LARGELY OFFSHORE...BUT MAY BRIEFLY PASS

CLOSE TO NORTH CAROLINA SHORELINE BETWEEN 12Z AND COLD FRONTAL

PASSAGE.

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