

000 

WUUS02 KWNS 241750

PTSDY2



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

IOWA MESONET SYNTHETIC PRODUCT FROM SWO V2021APR07

1150 AM CST MON NOV 24 1997



VALID TIME 251200Z - 261200Z



PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1



... TORNADO ...

&&



... HAIL ...

&&



... WIND ...



&&



CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1



... CATEGORICAL ...



TSTM   48112350 46962290 44912300 44112321 42362286 41032152 

       40382056 38642033 37372057 36582185



&&

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLM OLM SLE EUG MFR

45 ESE MHS SVE 25 SW TVL MER MRY.

//

.. GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION..

- - - SYNOPSIS - - -

MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE PATTERN SHIFT CONTINUES ACROSS

CONTINENTAL U.S.  THIS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEAWARD DEPARTURE

OF NORTHEASTERN STATES TROUGH...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING

CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN PERIOD...AND GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WITH

NUMEROUS MINOR SHORTWAVES IN BETWEEN.  CURRENT POSITION OF

NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH COMPARES RSNBLY WILL WITH LATEST MODEL

RUNS...HOWEVER ALL 3 SHORT-RANGE MODELS TEND TO FORECAST HIGH -

AMPLITUDE/MODERATELY PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC STORMS TO MOVE INLAND TOO

SOON.  THUS.. PER COORDINATION WITH HPC...WILL USE SLOWER ETA MODEL

SOLUTION...REALIZING THAT EVEN IT MAY BE SOMEWHAT FAST.

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