

000 

WUUS01 KWNS 111513

PTSDY1



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

IOWA MESONET SYNTHETIC PRODUCT FROM SWO V2021APR07

1013 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 1996



VALID TIME 111500Z - 121200Z



PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1



... TORNADO ...

&&



... HAIL ...

&&



... WIND ...



&&



CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1



... CATEGORICAL ...



SLGT   29269503 30739137 32908725 35908281 38887985 39687773 

       41467581 40787310 99999999 29518123 29088282 99999999 

       30500009 30520200 31780320 36250290 36540161 35840003 

       30500009

TSTM   29650300 32330426 33300453 36750450 37930071 37769996 

       34659840 30459808 30879475 31839128 33978724 37848251 

       41187890 42217598 43637231 44006937 99999999 48991756 

       45911610 43581905 44582405



&&

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM

10 W GLS 20 NW BTR CKL HSS EKN HGR 10 NNW AVP ISP ...CONT...

25 NNW DAB 40 SSE CTY.



THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM

20 W JCT 35 NE P07 INK 20 SE CAO 35 SSE 1K5 35 SSW GAG 20 W JCT.



GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW P07 CNM ROW

RTN GCK DDC FSI 25 WNW AUS 25 S LFK 15 N HEZ 40 NW BHM 25 N 5I3

DUJ BGM LEB 30 SE AUG.



GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE 63S S80 BNO

ONP.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...EAST COAST...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU MID ATLANTIC/EAST COASTAL STATES BEFORE

MOVING OFFSHORE NEAR 06Z. SFC TEMPS MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH

DEWPOINTS IN 60S WILL RESULT IN 1500 TO 2500 J/KG CAPES BY MID AFTN

JUST AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION TO FRONTAL FORCING...

SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL FURTHER SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION AS UPPER

DIVERGENCE SPREADS OVER REGION AHEAD OF MID LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING

THRU MID-W. 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH 50 TO 60 KT MID

LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE FVRBL SHEAR FOR STORM ENHANCEMENT AND

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

