

000 

WUUS01 KWNS 051458

PTSDY1



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

IOWA MESONET SYNTHETIC PRODUCT FROM SWO V2021APR07

0858 AM CST SUN MAR 05 1995



VALID TIME 051500Z - 061200Z



PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1



... TORNADO ...

&&



... HAIL ...

&&



... WIND ...



&&



CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1



... CATEGORICAL ...



SLGT   32939465 34289285 34739179 34538995 33228937 31339064 

       31059343 31599475 32939465

TSTM   28719625 32029673 33959640 36269261 37788989 37908834 

       37108750 36118605 35398476 34828464 32258543 30358606 

       99999999 36582185 37891867 40301610 42791490 43601113 

       42850817 40290508 38080477 35730640 31800640



&&

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 40 N GGG

20 SE HOT 25 E LIT 25 WNW UOX 45 ESE GWO 15 NW MCB 15 W POE

25 N LFK 40 N GGG.



GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RGT OF A LN FM PSX 40 NE ACT DUA

30 E HRO 35 W MDH 40 SE MVN 30 N HOP 35 E BNA 35 NE CHA 35 ESE CHA

25 S AUO 25 WNW PFN.



GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RGT OF A LN FM MRY 40 NNW BIH 40 SSW EKO

30 NW TWF 20 W JAC 20 SE RIW 20 S FCL 20 SW PUB 20 WNW SAF ELP.

STG/SVR OVNGT CNVTN LWR MS VLY ASSOCD WITH WK S/WV TROF WILL BE

MOVG AWAY FROM ADEQUATE MSTR/INSTBY TO MAINTAIN A SVR THREAT TDA.

HOWEVER LOW LVL MSTR WILL CONT TO GRDLY INCR NWD THRU LWR MS VLY

DURG DAY AS SFC LOW DVLPS E OF CNTRL RCKYS. A LOW CONFIDENCE RISK

OF SVR TSTMS IS CONTD FOR MAINLY LATE THIS AFTN AND TNGT IN THE

PROGD AREA OF BEST LOW LVL MSTR CNVGNC ALG RETREATING WARM FRONT

INTO SRN AR. PROGD CAPES OF 2000 J/KG BY LAST NGTS ETA THIS AREA

MAY BE OVERDONE CONSIDERING LACK OF SFC HEATING...BUT CLEARING INTO

ERN TX SHUD PROVIDE HEATING SUF THIS AREA FOR CNVTN INITIATION.

ISOLD STG/SVR TSTMS ARE PSBL IN THIS SLGT AREA BGNG LATE THIS AFTN

AND CONTG INTO TNGT AS LLJ GRDL INCRS.

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