

000 

WUUS01 KWNS 090725

PTSDY1



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

IOWA MESONET SYNTHETIC PRODUCT FROM SWO V2021APR07

0125 AM CST MON MAR 09 1992



VALID TIME 091200Z - 101200Z



PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1



... TORNADO ...

&&



... HAIL ...

&&



... WIND ...



&&



CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1



... CATEGORICAL ...



MDT    29269486 29659528 31239577 32369540 34489310 36369095 

       36408917 33658845 30548825

SLGT   27709728 29539846 30799895 31809895 34889578 38959062 

       39838886 39458730 36968643 31318545 30078558

TSTM   36582185 37632095 37361836 36081516 34231133 31170960 

       99999999 29580241 31360050 33969848 39119460 44918961 

       46738726 99999999 41418186 35818398 32708365 29618310



&&

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVR PTNS OF ERN TX...AR...WRN TN

...LA AND MS.  THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM GLS HOU

60 W LFK TYR HOT 40 NNW JBR 30 NNE DYR CBM 10 S MOB.



THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM NGP SAT

70 S BWD BWD MLC 20 NW STL DEC HUF BWG DHN PAM.



GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RGT OF A LN FM MRY MOD BIH LAS 0E4

20 S DUG.



GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 40 S P07 SJT SPS MKC AUW

20 NE MQT ...CONT...CLE TYS MCN CTY.

UPR LVL SHRTWV TROF LIFTING NEWD ATTM OVR THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS IS

FCST TO MOV ACRS THE MID MS VLY AND UPR GRTLKS RGN.  VIGOROUS

SHRTWV TROF IS PROGD TO DIG SEWD ACRS THE PLNS DURG THE PD AND INCR

AMPLTD OF LGWV TROF OVR THE CNTRL U.S.  A SCND VORT MAX IS FCST

TO EJECT OUT ACRS THE SRN PLNS INTO THE LWR MS VLY.  STG 500 MB WND

MAX GRTR THAN 70 KT IS FCST TO MOV OUT OF CNTRL TX INTO SRN IL BY

00Z.  A SCND 500 MB 70 KT WND MAX IS TO MOV ACRS SRN TX AFTER 00Z.

AS SHRTWV MOVG INTO THE NRN PLNS DROPS SEWD...UPR/MID LVL WND

FIELDS BCM LESS DIFFLUENT DURG THE DY.  HWVR...STG JET SHUD STILL

INCR THE UVVS OVR THE LWR MS VLY.  STG LO LVL JET MAX IS XPCD TO

LIFT NEWD INTO THE OH VLY DURG PD AND BCM MORE SSWLY.  DIR SHEAR IS

GRTR OVR THE LWR MS VLY WHERE LO LVL FLO IS SLY.  SFC DWPNTS ARE

ALSO XPCD TO BE HIER OVR THE LWR MS VLY WITH VALUES IN THE MID

60S OVR LA/MS.  THIS ALG WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 70S AND MID LVL CD

TEMPS SHUD PRODUCE MDTLY UNSTBL AMS WITH LIS BTWN -4 TO -8.

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