

581 

AGPN40 KWNM 241405

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

705 AM PDT WED AUG 24 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS THE 06Z GFS

CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS 00Z GFS.

THE 12Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OBSERVED SEAS ALSO

MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE MWW3/ECMWF WAM FORECAST VALUES. AS OF

12Z...MAX SEAS WERE 7 FT OVER N CA OFFSHORE WATERS AND JUST N OF

THE WA WATERS. 



-----------------------------------------------------------------

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



WILL USE THE 00Z GFS INTO MIDDAY SAT BEFORE TRENDING END OF THE

MED RANGE TWDS NON-NCEP/00Z ECMWF. NO WIND WARNING HEADLINES WILL

BE NEEDED THRUT. BRIEF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.



SIMPLE AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE

PERIOD. HIGH PRES W AND NW OF THE NRN WATERS WILL REMAIN NEARLY

STNRY TODAY...SLOWLY DRIFT SW WHILE STRENGTHENING INTO FRI...THEN

PARK ITSELF ALONG 150W THRU THE WEEKEND. LOW PRES TROF ALONG THE

CA COAST WILL REMAIN STNRY TODAY...BEFORE EXPANDING N ACROSS THE

OR/WA COASTS THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. THE TROF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT W

AND OFFSHORE THU INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING

IN THE NRN CA WATERS SAT THRU SUN NIGHT. TO VARYING DEGREES MODELS

SUGGEST AN UPPER TROF CRESTING THE BLOCKING RIDGE SAT...DIGGING

TOWARDS THE PAC NW SUN AND SUN NIGHT. DEFERENCE TO 00Z ECMWF KEEPS

SURFACE REFLECTION AS A VERY WEAK PASSING FRONT AND LOW

CIRCULATION WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. THIS KEEPS GOOD

CONTINUITY WITH ONGOING OPC FORECAST AND PREV 23/12Z GFS.



SEAS...SIMILARLY WILL USE THE ENP WW3 INTO SAT BEFORE TRENDING SIG

WVHT GRIDS TWDS 12Z ECMWF WAM. 



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER KOSIER/COLLINS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

