

783 

AGPN40 KWNM 231356

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

656 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS 06Z GFS IS VERY

SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN. THE 12Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED

HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 48N136W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NE INTO

BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE 12Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT

OBSERVED SEAS MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE MWW3/ECMWF WAM FCST VALUES.



-----------------------------------------------------------------

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



RECENT METOP-A ASCAT OVERPASS JUST BEFORE 5Z RETURNED HIGHEST 

WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO CAPE BLANCO

SOUTH TO NEAR POINT ST GEORGE...AND MOSTLY 10-20 KT SEASONAL N TO

NW FLOW OVER THE REST OF THE OFFSHORES WATERS. SATELLITE SENSED

WINDS AND SHIP/BUOY OBS MATCH WELL WITH 00Z GFS GUIDANCE - AND

WITH GOOD INITIALIZATION AND CONTD GOOD 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT WILL

RE-POPULATE FIRST 48 HRS OF OVERNIGHT PACKAGE WITH THE LATEST GFS

GUIDANCE FOR ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS. 



AFTER ABOUT 06Z THU WILL RETAIN PREV GRIDS SINCE NO APPRECIABLE

UPDATE IS NEEDED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WEAK PATTERN PERSISTS INTO

NEXT WKND. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SLOWLY

STRENGTHENING AND SLOWLY W MIGRATING HIGH PRES W OF THE PZ5 

WATERS...COMBINING WITH A SLOWLY EXPANDING LOW PRES TROUGH ALONG

THE N/CEN CA COAST INTO THE WA/OR COASTS. RESULTANT GRADIENTS

WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD N TO NW WINDS ACROSS THE NRN PZ6 AND ALL

OF THE PZ5 WATERS...STRONGEST TO ABOUT 25 KT... HOWEVER CORE OF

STRONGEST WINDS TO BE SHIFTED W OF WHERE THEY ARE TYPICALLY

LOCATED AND INTO THE OUTER ZNS.



SEAS...IN SIMILAR FASHION AS THE WIND GRIDS WILL USE THE LTST 00Z

ENP WW3 INTO 6Z THU BEFORE TRENDING TO PREV FCST. 





.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER KOSIER/COLLINS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

