

845 

FNUS54 KMRX 232344 AAA

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

644 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014



.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST 

TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ON CHRISTMAS EVE.  

WIDESPREAD RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY...AND THERE 

IS EVEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. NOTABLE COOLDOWN 

IN TIME FOR CHRISTMAS...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-250045-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

644 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      47-52 (+4)   58-63 (+2)   33-38        40-45        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  66-71 (-2)   89-94        52-57        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  9 G20                  W  8 G15     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  6 G15    S 11 G20     SW 10 G20    W  7         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          90           30           0            

PRECIP DURATION       8            5            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.38         0.19         0.03         0.00         

LAL                   2            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2500                      5000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 24                      W 25         

DISPERSION                         9 POOR                    64 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 11 G25                  W 10 G19     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  7 G19    S 14 G25     SW 13 G25    W  9 G17     



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF

SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR SLIGHT CHANCE

OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER

40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-250045-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

644 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (+5)   56-61 (+4)   33-38        38-43        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   67-72 (-8)   93-98        51-56        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 12 G32                  W 11 G20     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE 12 G31    S 12 G23     W  9 G19     W  8 G16     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          90           30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       8            5            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   10 AM        

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.58         0.28         0.03         0.01         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3400                      4900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 26                      W 30         

DISPERSION                         12 POOR                   54 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 15 G40                  W 13 G25     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE 15 G39    S 15 G28     W 12 G24     W 11 G21     



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF

SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR SLIGHT CHANCE

OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID

40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-250045-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

644 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      46-51 (+4)   55-60 (+4)   31-36        41-46        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   64-69 (-18)  93-98        50-55        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 15 G42                  W 10 G19     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 14 G38     SW 13 G26    W 10 G21     W  7 G15     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          90           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       8            5            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   4 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.67         0.17         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3500                      4800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 28                     W 25         

DISPERSION                         10 POOR                   35 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 19 G53                  W 12 G24     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 18 G47     SW 15 G33    W 12 G27     W  9 G19     



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER

50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR SLIGHT CHANCE

OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID

40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-250045-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

644 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      48-53 (+6)   57-62 (+4)   33-38        42-47        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   58-63 (-21)  87-92        51-56        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 13 G31                  W  7         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE 10 G27    SW 11 G21    SW  8 G16    W  5         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          90           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       8            5                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING                             

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.75         0.13         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      4100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 25                     W 17         

DISPERSION                         40 FAIR                   29 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 16 G39                  W  9 G17     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE 13 G33    SW 14 G27    SW 10 G20    W  6         



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER

50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-250045-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

644 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (+8)   57-62 (+4)   32-37        43-48        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  63-68 (-15)  87-92        48-53        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 11 G24                  W  7         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  9 G22    SW 11 G20    W  8 G15     NW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          90           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       8            5            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   4 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.88         0.15         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4200                      4300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 23                     W 18         

DISPERSION                         37 FAIR                   30 FAIR      

MAX LVORI                          5                         4            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 13 G30                  W  9 G17     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE 11 G27    SW 13 G25    W 10 G19     NW  7        



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. EAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER

50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-250045-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

644 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      46-51 (+3)   59-64 (+3)   34-39        42-47        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+2)  62-67 (-7)   85-90        50-55        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  8 G18                 W  9         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  5 G16    SW 11 G18    SW  9 G19    W  7         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          90           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       8            5            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   4 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.53         0.19         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2200                      4500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 21                     W 24         

DISPERSION                         13 GEN POOR               63 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE 10 G22                 W 11 G19     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  7 G20    SW 13 G23    SW 12 G23    W  9 G17     



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 30S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF

SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR SLIGHT CHANCE

OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID

40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-250045-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

644 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      47-52 (+2)   58-63 (+4)   33-38        43-48        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+2)  53-58 (-24)  85-90        50-55        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  9 G19                  W  7         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  5        SW 12 G21    SW  9 G18    W  5         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          80           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       8            3            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.54         0.13         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2800                      4000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 26                     W 21         

DISPERSION                         37 FAIR                   48 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 11 G24                  W  9 G16     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  6 G18    SW 15 G27    SW 11 G22    W  7         



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS NEAR 30. EAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-250045-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

644 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (+6)   57-62 (+3)   33-38        43-48        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+3)  49-54 (-36)  85-90        51-56        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 11 G22                  W  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  6 G17    SW 11 G21    SW  8 G15    LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          80           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       8            3                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.67         0.09         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4400                      3600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 30                     W 17         

DISPERSION                         85 GOOD                   35 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 14 G27                  W  8         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  8 G22    SW 14 G26    SW 10 G19    SW  5        



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTH

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER

50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.



$$



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