

486 

FNUS54 KMRX 212010

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

310 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014



.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS THE 

REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A CHANCE 

FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A 

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN 

SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS 

FOR CHRISTMAS EVE. 





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-222115-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

310 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      31-36 (+3)   47-52 (0)    36-41        54-59        

RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (0)    56-61 (+7)   95-100       75-80        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SE  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SE  5        SE  6        

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           20           0            20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          10 PM        CONTINUING                1 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   1 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.01         0.00         0.02         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4300                      3500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SE  9                     S 21         

DISPERSION                         19 GEN POOR               25 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SE  7 G17    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SE  6        SE  6        SE  8 G16    



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. COLDER. LOWS

IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID

40S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. HIGHS NEAR 50. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID

20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-222115-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

310 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      32-37 (+3)   44-49 (-2)   36-41        51-56        

RH % (24H TREND)      83-88 (-7)   62-67 (+11)  95-100       74-79        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  5                     SE  8 G18    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  5        SE  6        SE  7        SE  8 G17    

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           30           20           50           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   1 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   1 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.01         0.01         0.12         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4400                      3800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SE 10                     S 24         

DISPERSION                         14 GEN POOR               20 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  6                     SE 10 G23    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  6        SE  7        SE  8 G17    SE 10 G21    



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. MUCH COLDER.

LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. HIGHS

IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN

THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-222115-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

310 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      34-39 (+3)   46-51 (+1)   41-46        53-58        

RH % (24H TREND)      84-89 (-8)   65-70 (+7)   95-100       73-78        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  9 G24     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  8 G17     S  9 G22     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         DRIZZLE      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           0            20           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1                         1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      1 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING                CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.00         0.01         0.17         

LAL                   1            1            1            2            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4500                      4100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S  8                      S 30         

DISPERSION                         9 POOR                    25 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  5                      S 12 G30     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  6 G15     S 10 G21     S 12 G27     



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. MUCH COLDER.

LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. HIGHS

IN THE 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-222115-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

310 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      36-41 (+4)   50-55 (+3)   42-47        53-58        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (-4)   65-70 (+4)   95-100       75-80        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  5                     SE  8 G18    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SE  6        SE  7 G15    SE  8 G16    

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         DRIZZLE      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           0            30           80           

PRECIP DURATION       1                         1            4            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      1 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING                CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.00         0.01         0.28         

LAL                   1            1            1            2            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3900                      2900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SE 12                     S 26         

DISPERSION                         18 GEN POOR               18 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  6                     SE 11 G23    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SE  8 G15    SE  9 G19    SE 10 G20    



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

NEAR 50. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. MUCH

COLDER. LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTH WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS NEAR 40. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-222115-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

310 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      36-41 (+2)   48-53 (0)    41-46        51-56        

RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (-5)   66-71 (+1)   95-100       76-81        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  5                     SE  7        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SE  6        SE  6        SE  6        

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         DRIZZLE      SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           0            30           80           

PRECIP DURATION       1                         1            5            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING                CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.00         0.03         0.33         

LAL                   1            1            1            2            

LASI                               4                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4100                      2800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SE 10                     SE 20        

DISPERSION                         16 GEN POOR               8 POOR       

MAX LVORI                          4                         7            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  6                     SE  8 G17    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SE  7        SE  7 G15    SE  8 G15    



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

NEAR 50. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLIGHT

CHANCE OF SNOW. MUCH COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS NEAR 50. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN

THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-222115-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

310 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      33-38 (+4)   49-54 (-1)   38-43        55-60        

RH % (24H TREND)      85-90 (-4)   55-60 (+7)   95-100       72-77        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SE  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      E  5         LGT/VAR      SE  5        

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           20           0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          10 PM        CONTINUING                7 AM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   1 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.01         0.00         0.04         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4200                      2700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                E  8                      S 18         

DISPERSION                         20 GEN POOR               19 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SE  7        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      E  6         SE  6        SE  7        



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. COLDER. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTH WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN

THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-222115-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

310 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      34-39 (+7)   51-56 (+1)   41-46        55-60        

RH % (24H TREND)      86-91 (-1)   53-58 (+9)   94-99        74-79        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SE  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SE  5        

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         NONE         SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           0            20           60           

PRECIP DURATION       1                         1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      1 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING                CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.00         0.01         0.14         

LAL                   1            1            1            2            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3900                      2900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SE 10                     S 24         

DISPERSION                         22 FAIR                   34 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SE  6        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SE  6        SE  5        SE  6        



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

NEAR 50. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. MUCH COLDER.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-222115-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

310 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      36-41 (+8)   50-55 (+2)   43-48        54-59        

RH % (24H TREND)      86-91 (0)    60-65 (+9)   95-100       73-78        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  6         S  6         SE  6        

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         NONE         SHOWERS      TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           0            30           80           

PRECIP DURATION       1                         1            4            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            7 AM                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.00         0.02         0.39         

LAL                   1            1            1            2            

LASI                               4                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3600                      2600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 14                      S 28         

DISPERSION                         29 FAIR                   35 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  6                     S  8 G15     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  8         S  7 G16     SE  9 G16    



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

NEAR 50. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.

COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS

AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



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