

712 

FNUS54 KMRX 152036

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

336 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014



.DISCUSSION...

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM SPINNING ACROSS MISSOURI AND 

ILLINOIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY. 

OVERNIGHT THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST 

VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL 

THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE 

SHOWERS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WINDS 

WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY 

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL 

GENERALLY BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-162145-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

336 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      38-43 (+13)  47-52 (-7)   32-37        44-49        

RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (+3)   66-71 (+28)  90-95        46-51        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  6         W  6         LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           60           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       4            2            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.11         0.06         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4500                      5100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 22                     W 13         

DISPERSION                         46 GEN GOOD               33 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  7 G16                 W  5         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  5        W  9 G16     W  9 G16     W  5         



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID

40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SNOW OR RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS NEAR 40.

WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-162145-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

336 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      35-40 (+8)   47-52 (-6)   31-36        44-49        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+19) 60-65 (+25)  89-94        42-47        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  7 G16                 NW  7 G15    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  5         W  8 G17     W  9 G18     NW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           50           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       4            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.09         0.05         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5200                      5100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 24                      NW 15        

DISPERSION                         49 GEN GOOD               29 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  9 G21                 NW  8 G19    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  7 G16     W 11 G22     W 12 G23     NW  6        



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 30. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY OR CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID

20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S

TO MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-162145-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

336 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      37-42 (+10)  47-52 (-5)   32-37        47-52        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+23) 60-65 (+28)  82-87        32-37        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 10 G21                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8 G21     W  8 G17     W  7 G15     LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           40           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       5            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.18         0.02         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5400                      4800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 25                      NW  8        

DISPERSION                         51 GEN GOOD               10 POOR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 12 G27                 LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 10 G27     W 10 G22     W  9 G19     LGT/VAR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...RAIN LIKELY OR CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO

MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-162145-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

336 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      40-45 (+17)  51-56 (-4)   33-38        50-55        

RH % (24H TREND)      94-99 (+6)   60-65 (+26)  83-88        30-35        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6 G15                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  7 G17     W  6         NW  5        LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           30           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.22         0.02         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5200                      4200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 21                      N  9         

DISPERSION                         55 GEN GOOD               17 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  8 G19                 N  5         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  9 G21     W  9 G16     NW  7        N  5         



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...RAIN LIKELY OR CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-162145-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

336 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      38-43 (+18)  51-56 (-6)   32-37        52-57        

RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (0)    58-63 (+28)  82-87        27-32        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  5        W  6         NW  6        LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           30           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.19         0.02         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5300                      4700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 21                      N  9         

DISPERSION                         52 GEN GOOD               19 GEN POOR  

MAX LVORI                          4                         3            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  7 G15                 N  6         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  6 G15    W  9 G16     NW  8        N  5         



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...RAIN LIKELY OR CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 40S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-162145-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

336 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      36-41 (+13)  49-54 (-4)   33-38        47-52        

RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (0)    62-67 (+21)  85-90        45-50        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5 G15                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  7 G16     W  7         LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           50           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       4            1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.13         0.05         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4200                      4800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 22                      W 10         

DISPERSION                         53 GEN GOOD               28 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6 G18                 W  5         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W 10 G20     W  9 G16     LGT/VAR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 30. LIGHT WINDS. 

.FRIDAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S. EAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...RAIN LIKELY OR CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S

TO MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-162145-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

336 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      40-45 (+13)  49-54 (-3)   32-37        46-51        

RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (+2)   60-65 (+16)  86-91        43-48        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  6         W  6         LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           20           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       5            1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.16         0.01         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4400                      4200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 22                      NW  7        

DISPERSION                         58 GEN GOOD               16 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  7 G16                 LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  5        W  9 G16     W  7         LGT/VAR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT

WINDS BECOMING NORTH LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

40S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID

30S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...RAIN LIKELY OR CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO UPPER 40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-162145-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

336 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      42-47 (+16)  50-55 (-4)   33-38        48-53        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+3)  58-63 (+13)  83-88        40-45        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  5         W  6         NW  5        LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           20           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       3            1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   1 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.17         0.01         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4600                      3600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 20                      N  8         

DISPERSION                         58 GEN GOOD               16 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  7                     LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  6         W  8         NW  6        LGT/VAR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S

TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



