

881 

FNUS54 KMRX 041942

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

242 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014



.DISCUSSION...

WARM AND MOIST AIR RETURNING OVER A COOLER AIR MASS 

ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WILL PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS 

THE REGION TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL INCREASE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN 

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OUT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM 

THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-052045-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

242 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      40-45 (+9)   55-60 (+9)   45-50        51-56        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+3)  66-71 (-15)  95-100       75-80        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SW  9 G18    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  5         S  6         W  8         

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           50           100          100          

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            5            5            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.05         0.24         0.61         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2800                      3600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 12                      W 18         

DISPERSION                         7 POOR                    24 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SW 11 G22    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  6         S  7 G17     W 11 G19     



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 30.

HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO

MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-052045-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

242 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      40-45 (+4)   52-57 (+3)   44-49        52-57        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+6)  64-69 (-6)   95-100       70-75        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SW  9 G19    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  5         S  8 G19     W  9 G18     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           30           90           100          

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            5            7            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.04         0.16         0.52         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3200                      3700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 14                      W 18         

DISPERSION                         4 VERY POOR               13 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SW 12 G24    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  6 G15     S 10 G23     W 12 G23     



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS IN

THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 30.

HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-052045-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

242 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      43-48 (+3)   56-61 (+1)   45-50        51-56        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+7)  61-66 (-3)   95-100       75-80        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  5                      SW 13 G28    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  6 G15     S 10 G24     W  9 G20     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           30           90           100          

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            3            7            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.08         0.03         0.23         0.51         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3600                      4000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 18                      W 20         

DISPERSION                         7 POOR                    13 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  7 G18                  SW 16 G35    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  8 G18     S 13 G30     W 11 G25     



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-052045-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

242 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      46-51 (+5)   60-65 (-1)   47-52        53-58        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+2)  59-64 (+1)   95-100       78-83        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  9 G20     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  9 G20     W  7 G15     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           30           90           100          

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            3            6            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.03         0.26         0.47         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2700                      2500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 16                      W 14         

DISPERSION                         9 POOR                    5 VERY POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S 12 G26     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  6 G15     S 11 G26     W  9 G19     



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-052045-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

242 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      47-52 (+7)   60-65 (-3)   45-50        52-57        

RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (-2)   58-63 (0)    95-100       84-89        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  7 G15     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SE  7 G16    W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           30           90           100          

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            3            7            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.08         0.02         0.20         0.45         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3000                      2800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SE 12                     W 12         

DISPERSION                         7 POOR                    4 VERY POOR  

MAX LVORI                          6                         9            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  9 G19     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SE  9 G20    W  8 G17     



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-052045-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

242 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      41-46 (+8)   59-64 (+7)   45-50        54-59        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+5)  59-64 (-13)  93-98        69-74        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SW  8 G16    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SE  5        W  9 G16     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           40           90           100          

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            5            7            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.05         0.23         0.56         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2000                      3000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 10                      W 18         

DISPERSION                         4 VERY POOR               23 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SW 10 G20    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SE  6 G15    W 11 G20     



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-052045-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

242 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      44-49 (+9)   60-65 (+7)   49-54        54-59        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+4)  60-65 (-8)   90-95        65-70        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SW  9 G17    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  6 G16     NW  8 G15    

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           50           100          100          

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            7            5            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.05         0.39         0.46         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2400                      3100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 14                      NW 16        

DISPERSION                         13 GEN POOR               27 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SW 11 G22    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  5         S  7 G20     NW 10 G19    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHEAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-052045-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

242 PM EST THU DEC 4 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      47-52 (+8)   63-68 (+4)   49-54        55-60        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+5)  59-64 (-2)   95-100       68-73        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  8 G16     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  6         S  7 G16     NW  7        

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           40           100          90           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            7            5            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.04         0.49         0.38         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2200                      2500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 15                      NW 14        

DISPERSION                         12 POOR                   17 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S 10 G20     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  7         S  9 G20     NW  9 G18    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER

40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 50. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



