

049 

FNUS54 KMRX 180238 AAA

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

938 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014



.DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS  

A COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN 

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED 

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

 





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-190345-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

938 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      13-18 (-25)  21-26 (-18)  10-15        35-40        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+3)  33-38 (-40)  69-74        26-31        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  9 G17                  SW  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 10 G17     W  9 G17     W  5         SW  9 G18    

PRECIP TYPE           FLURRIES     SNOW SHOWERS NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           20           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       5            1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   1 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.01         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5800                      2900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 22                      SW 25        

DISPERSION                         72 GOOD                   18 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W 12 G21                  SW  8 G18    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 12 G22     W 11 G21     W  6         SW 11 G22    



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN

THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS IN

THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-190345-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

938 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      14-19 (-25)  19-24 (-21)  9-14         34-39        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+9)  34-39 (-38)  66-71        26-31        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W 12 G20                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 13 G24    W 10 G19     W  6         SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           FLURRIES     SNOW SHOWERS NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           10           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       5            1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   1 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.01         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5400                      4000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 25                      SW 18        

DISPERSION                         58 GEN GOOD               19 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W 14 G25                  SW  5        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 16 G30    W 13 G24     W  8 G18     SW  8 G15    



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. WEST WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN

THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS IN

THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-190345-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

938 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      12-17 (-28)  21-26 (-19)  11-16        36-41        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+4)  30-35 (-46)  57-62        27-32        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  8 G15                  SW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 11 G20    W  7         W  5         SW  8 G17    

PRECIP TYPE           FLURRIES     NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       5                                                   

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                                                

PRECIP END            7 AM                                                

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5300                      4100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 18                      SW 18        

DISPERSION                         35 FAIR                   16 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W 10 G19                  SW  6        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 13 G25    W  9 G18     W  6         SW 10 G22    



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS IN

THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-190345-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

938 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      16-21 (-26)  26-31 (-16)  13-18        39-44        

RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (-1)   26-31 (-49)  58-63        26-31        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  7                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 10 G17    W  7         LGT/VAR      SW  7        

PRECIP TYPE           FLURRIES     NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     10           0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       2                                                   

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                                                

PRECIP END            7 AM                                                

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4900                      3100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 16                     SW 16        

DISPERSION                         39 FAIR                   15 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  9                     LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 12 G21    W  9 G16     LGT/VAR      SW  9 G17    



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.

LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING

BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-190345-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

938 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      17-22 (-27)  27-32 (-17)  12-17        38-43        

RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (-4)   24-29 (-46)  59-64        24-29        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  8                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 11 G19    NW  7        LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION                                                           

PRECIP BEGIN                                                              

PRECIP END                                                                

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5100                      3400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 18                     SW 14        

DISPERSION                         47 GEN GOOD               13 GEN POOR  

MAX LVORI                          1                         2            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW 10 G17                 LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 13 G24    NW  9 G17    LGT/VAR      SW  7        



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING

BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-190345-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

938 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      17-22 (-23)  24-29 (-16)  11-16        37-42        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+3)  30-35 (-48)  67-72        27-32        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  9 G17                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 11         W  9 G17     LGT/VAR      SW  7        

PRECIP TYPE           FLURRIES     NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       5                                                   

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                                                

PRECIP END            7 AM                                                

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5500                      3100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 21                      SW 22        

DISPERSION                         73 GOOD                   29 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W 12 G21                  SW  5        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 13 G22     W 11 G21     W  5         SW  8 G17    



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.

LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS IN

THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-190345-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

938 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      15-20 (-24)  25-30 (-14)  14-19        38-43        

RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (-2)   29-34 (-45)  65-70        28-33        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  7                      S  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  9 G16    W  7         LGT/VAR      SW  8        

PRECIP TYPE           FLURRIES     NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       5                                                   

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                                                

PRECIP END            7 AM                                                

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5000                      2800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 16                      SW 22        

DISPERSION                         52 GEN GOOD               28 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  9 G16                  S  7 G17     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 11 G20    W  8 G16     LGT/VAR      SW 10 G19    



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.

LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

RAIN. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-190345-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

938 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLEAR       CLEAR        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      15-20 (-24)  27-32 (-12)  16-21        40-45        

RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (-5)   27-32 (-41)  61-66        29-34        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  7                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  9 G16    W  6         LGT/VAR      S  8         

PRECIP TYPE           FLURRIES     NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     10           0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       5                                                   

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                                                

PRECIP END            7 AM                                                

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4700                      2600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 15                     SW 18        

DISPERSION                         46 GEN GOOD               23 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  9                     S  6 G16     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 11 G21    W  8 G15     LGT/VAR      S 10 G19     



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 



$$



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