

491 

FNUS54 KMRX 170256 AAA

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

956 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014



.DISCUSSION...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE 

GULF STATES...THEN MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA.  ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD 

AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK.

 





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-180400-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

956 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      36-41 (+7)   41-46 (+2)   12-17        21-26        

RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (+20)  75-80 (+33)  94-99        36-41        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6 G20                 W  9 G17     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  7 G16    W  9 G17     W  9 G17     W  9 G17     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          40           20           

PRECIP DURATION       7            5            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.59         0.45         0.03         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3900                      6300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 20                      W 24         

DISPERSION                         32 FAIR                   89 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  8 G25                 W 12 G21     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  9 G21    W 12 G22     W 12 G22     W 12 G21     



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 10 TO 17. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COLD. LOWS IN THE MID

20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-180400-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

956 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      37-42 (+8)   42-47 (+1)   15-20        19-24        

RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (+17)  67-72 (+29)  88-93        32-37        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 10 G32                 W 11 G20     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 10 G24     W 11 G20     NW 12 G23    W 11 G21     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          40           20           

PRECIP DURATION       7            5            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.77         0.60         0.03         0.01         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      6100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 23                      W 30         

DISPERSION                         24 FAIR                   85 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 13 G40                 W 14 G25     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 13 G30     W 14 G25     NW 15 G28    W 14 G26     



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 9 TO 17. WEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-180400-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

956 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      39-44 (+7)   44-49 (+2)   14-19        22-27        

RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (+22)  64-69 (+20)  80-85        27-32        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W 11 G40                  W  9 G19     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 13 G32     W 10 G19     NW  9 G18    W  9 G19     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          30           0            

PRECIP DURATION       7            5            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         1.09         0.42         0.03         0.00         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4300                      6100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 21                      W 26         

DISPERSION                         21 FAIR                   67 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W 14 G50                  W 12 G24     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 17 G40     W 12 G23     NW 12 G23    W 12 G24     



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 11 TO 18. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

RAIN. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-180400-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

956 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      41-46 (+7)   44-49 (0)    16-21        27-32        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+17)  61-66 (+17)  80-85        24-29        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  9 G26                  NW  9 G17    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE 11 G24    NW  9 G17    NW  8 G16    NW  9 G17    

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       7            5            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         1.33         0.27         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4300                      5700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 18                     NW 24        

DISPERSION                         36 FAIR                   75 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W 11 G33                  NW 12 G22    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE 15 G31    NW 11 G21    NW 11 G20    NW 11 G22    



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 12 TO 19. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTH

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COLD. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

RAIN. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS AROUND 30.

HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-180400-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

956 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      43-48 (+10)  45-50 (-1)   17-22        28-33        

RH % (24H TREND)      86-91 (+9)   49-54 (+9)   79-84        19-24        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  9 G25                  NW 10 G18    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  9 G19    NW 10 G18    NW  9 G17    NW 10 G18    

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       7            5            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         1.50         0.42         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4200                      5700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 20                     NW 26        

DISPERSION                         33 FAIR                   76 GOOD      

MAX LVORI                          4                         2            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W 12 G31                  NW 13 G23    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE 11 G24    NW 13 G23    NW 12 G21    NW 12 G23    



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 16. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COLD. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS

IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-180400-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

956 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      39-44 (+10)  43-48 (+1)   16-21        25-30        

RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (+14)  66-71 (+19)  83-88        29-34        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  7 G20                  W  9 G17     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  6 G17    W 10 G18     W  9 G17     W 10 G18     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          100          20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       7            5            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.67         0.45         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      6200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 21                      W 25         

DISPERSION                         46 GEN GOOD               101 VERY GOOD

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  9 G25                  W 12 G22     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  8 G21    W 12 G23     W 12 G21     W 12 G23     



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 11 TO 19. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER

30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

RAIN. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-180400-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

956 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      37-42 (+5)   41-46 (+1)   14-19        26-31        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+19) 62-67 (+8)   85-90        28-33        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  8 G15                 W  8 G16     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  5 G15    W  9         NW  8        W  8 G16     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          90           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       7            3            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.91         0.15         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4200                      5700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 18                      W 22         

DISPERSION                         47 GEN GOOD               85 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  9 G18                 W 10 G20     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  7 G19    W 11 G19     NW 10 G18    W 10 G20     



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 17. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS NEAR 40. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COLD. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS IN THE

40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-180400-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

956 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      37-42 (0)    41-46 (0)    14-19        28-33        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+26) 61-66 (+17)  77-82        25-30        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  8 G16                 NW  9 G16    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  7 G17    NW  9 G17    NW  8        NW  8 G16    

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          80           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       7            3                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         1.15         0.05         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4300                      5400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 18                     NW 23        

DISPERSION                         50 GEN GOOD               83 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW 10 G20                 NW 11 G20    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  9 G22    NW 11 G21    NW 10 G19    NW 10 G20    



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 19. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COLD. LOWS AROUND 30.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS IN THE

40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN

THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

50S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



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