

314 

FNUS54 KMRX 311446

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

1046 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014



.DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN VALLEY

AND INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

 

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION 

ON HALLOWEEN...BRINGING A COLD WIND AND LIGHT RAIN. RAIN WILL CHANGE 

OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS 

EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 

UNSEASONABLY COLD THIS WEEKEND...BUT A QUICK WARMING TREND WILL 

DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-011600-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

1046 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      46-51 (-6)   28-33 (-5)   33-38        

RH % (24H TREND)      59-64 (+7)   95-100 (+1)  67-72        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   NW 10 G20    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  5         W  6         NW 11 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           100          100          

PRECIP DURATION       3            8            6            

PRECIP BEGIN          12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.18         0.33         0.20         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5000                      4100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W  8                      NW 26        

DISPERSION            20 GEN POOR               49 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   NW 13 G25    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  6         W  8 G15     NW 13 G25    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

20S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-011600-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1046 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      44-49 (-6)   26-31 (-6)   28-33        

RH % (24H TREND)      62-67 (+8)   95-100 (+3)  74-79        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   NW 11 G22    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  5         W  7 G16     NW 12 G23    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           100          100          

PRECIP DURATION       3            8            8            

PRECIP BEGIN          12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.14         0.45         0.31         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5300                      5000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W  9                      NW 28        

DISPERSION            19 GEN POOR               54 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   NW 14 G28    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  6 G15     W  9 G21     NW 15 G28    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 20S

TO LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER

MIDNIGHT. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER

60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-011600-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

1046 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (-6)   25-30 (-7)   30-35        

RH % (24H TREND)      56-61 (+7)   95-100 (+5)  66-71        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   NW 13 G25    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  7 G17    NW 10 G19    NW 12 G23    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           100          100          

PRECIP DURATION       1            8            6            

PRECIP BEGIN          12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.12         0.46         0.21         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5500                      6100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW  9                     N 32         

DISPERSION            19 GEN POOR               81 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   NW 16 G31    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  9 G22    NW 12 G24    NW 15 G29    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER

60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND

40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-011600-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1046 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      50-55 (-6)   28-33 (-6)   37-42        

RH % (24H TREND)      51-56 (+7)   93-98 (+2)   51-56        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   NW 12 G22    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  7 G15    NW  9 G17    NW 11 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           60           60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            5            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.08         0.27         0.08         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5400                      5700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW 12                     N 33         

DISPERSION            33 FAIR                   104 VERY GOOD

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   NW 15 G28    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  9 G19    NW 11 G21    NW 14 G25    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING

LIGHT. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-011600-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

1046 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (-6)   28-33 (-4)   37-42        

RH % (24H TREND)      54-59 (+10)  95-100 (+6)  51-56        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   NW 13 G24    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  7        NW  9 G18    NW 13 G24    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           50           50           

PRECIP DURATION       1            2            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.08         0.19         0.10         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5400                      5700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW 10                     N 35         

DISPERSION            28 FAIR                   102 VERY GOOD

MAX LVORI             4                         3            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     N  5                      NW 17 G31    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  9 G18    NW 11 G23    NW 16 G30    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING

LIGHT. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-011600-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

1046 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (-6)   29-34 (-4)   35-40        

RH % (24H TREND)      55-60 (+8)   92-97 (-3)   62-67        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   NW 10 G20    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  6         W  7         NW 10 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           100          80           

PRECIP DURATION       3            8            6            

PRECIP BEGIN          12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.14         0.23         0.18         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4700                      4100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W  8                      NW 25        

DISPERSION            23 FAIR                   56 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   NW 13 G25    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  7 G16     W  9 G18     NW 13 G25    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LIGHT

WINDS. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-011600-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

1046 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      50-55 (-6)   29-34 (-6)   36-41        

RH % (24H TREND)      51-56 (+5)   89-94 (-3)   58-63        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   NW 11 G20    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  7 G19    NW 10 G21    NW 10 G18    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           80           60           

PRECIP DURATION       4            8            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.11         0.15         0.08         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4600                      4300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW 10                     NW 28        

DISPERSION            28 FAIR                   73 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   NW 14 G25    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  9 G24    NW 13 G26    NW 12 G23    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER

30S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

LIGHT WINDS. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER

60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-011600-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

1046 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      52-57 (-6)   29-34 (-7)   40-45        

RH % (24H TREND)      48-53 (+4)   84-89 (-5)   50-55        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   NW 12 G23    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  8 G20    NW 12 G22    NW 11 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   4 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.05         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4900                      4900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW 13                     N 33         

DISPERSION            41 GEN GOOD               108 VERY GOOD

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   NW 16 G28    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 10 G25    NW 14 G28    NW 14 G26    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING

LIGHT. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



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