

989 

FNUS54 KMRX 310121 AAA

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

921 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014



.DISCUSSION...

 

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION 

ON HALLOWEEN...BRINGING A COLD WIND AND LIGHT RAIN. RAIN WILL 

EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT 

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 

TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD THIS WEEKEND...BUT A QUICK 

WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-010230-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

921 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      33-38 (-1)   48-53 (-4)   28-33        36-41        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+5)  56-61 (+6)   90-95        59-64        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  7 G16    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  6         W  7 G15     NW  9 G19    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            80           100          90           

PRECIP DURATION                    4            8            6            

PRECIP BEGIN                       8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.16         0.35         0.14         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4100                      2600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW  9                     NW 18        

DISPERSION                         17 GEN POOR               8 POOR       

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  9 G20    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  7 G17     W  9 G19     NW 11 G24    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 20S

TO LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER

60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-010230-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

921 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      32-37 (-1)   46-51 (-4)   26-31        31-36        

RH % (24H TREND)      94-99 (-1)   58-63 (+7)   95-100       65-70        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  9 G18    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  6         NW  7 G18    NW 11 G24    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            80           80           80           

PRECIP DURATION                    3            8            7            

PRECIP BEGIN                       12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.11         0.43         0.22         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4400                      3100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W  9                      NW 23        

DISPERSION                         13 GEN POOR               6 VERY POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW 12 G23    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  7         NW  9 G23    NW 14 G30    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 20S

TO LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID

60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-010230-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

921 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      32-37 (-1)   47-52 (-4)   25-30        33-38        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (-5)   53-58 (+5)   95-100       59-64        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW 10 G23    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  6 G16    NW  9 G19    NW  9 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            60           80           80           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            8            5            

PRECIP BEGIN                       12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.16         0.45         0.18         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4600                      3800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W  9                      NW 22        

DISPERSION                         12 POOR                   13 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW 13 G29    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  7 G20    NW 12 G23    NW 12 G25    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 50S.

NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER

60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-010230-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

921 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      34-39 (0)    52-57 (-4)   28-33        40-45        

RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (-6)   46-51 (+3)   88-93        47-52        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW 13 G24    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  7 G19    NW 13 G24    N 11 G24     

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            50           50           60           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            4            2            

PRECIP BEGIN                       12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.14         0.12         0.04         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4500                      3500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW  9                     NW 22        

DISPERSION                         20 GEN POOR               28 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW 16 G31    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  9 G24    NW 16 G31    N 14 G30     



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LIGHT

WINDS. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S. EAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-010230-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

921 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      32-37 (-1)   51-56 (-4)   28-33        40-45        

RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (-6)   51-56 (+9)   86-91        48-53        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW 13 G24    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  6 G15    NW 11 G22    NW 12 G24    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            50           50           50           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            2            2            

PRECIP BEGIN                       12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.13         0.12         0.04         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4500                      3500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW  9                     NW 23        

DISPERSION                         18 GEN POOR               25 FAIR      

MAX LVORI                          5                         3            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW 16 G30    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  8 G19    NW 13 G27    NW 15 G30    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LIGHT

WINDS. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-010230-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

921 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      33-38 (-2)   51-56 (-4)   29-34        38-43        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+3)  51-56 (+6)   87-92        55-60        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  7 G15    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  6         NW  8 G15    NW  8 G16    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            80           80           80           

PRECIP DURATION                    3            8            4            

PRECIP BEGIN                       8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.15         0.22         0.08         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3800                      2500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W  9                      NW 18        

DISPERSION                         19 GEN POOR               17 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  9 G18    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  8 G18     NW 10 G19    NW 10 G20    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS NEAR 30. LIGHT WINDS. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID

60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-010230-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

921 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      35-40 (-1)   52-57 (-4)   29-34        39-44        

RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (-3)   47-52 (+2)   84-89        52-57        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  8 G18    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  6 G18    NW 10 G21    NW  8 G18    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            70           60           60           

PRECIP DURATION                    2            3            2            

PRECIP BEGIN                       8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.17         0.13         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3800                      2700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW  9                     NW 21        

DISPERSION                         21 FAIR                   25 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW 11 G22    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  8 G23    NW 12 G26    NW 10 G22    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER

30S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LIGHT

WINDS. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-010230-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

921 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      36-41 (-1)   54-59 (-4)   29-34        43-48        

RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (+4)   43-48 (0)    85-90        46-51        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW 13 G24    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  9 G23    NW 13 G25    N 12 G23     

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            50           30           20           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN                       8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   4 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.12         0.03         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4100                      3000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 10                     NW 25        

DISPERSION                         26 FAIR                   40 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW 16 G30    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     N  5         NW 11 G28    NW 17 G31    N 15 G29     



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTH WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



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