

251 

FNUS54 KMRX 160051

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

851 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014



.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN 

REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. 

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK 

AND INTO THE WEEKEND.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-170200-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

851 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      44-49 (-5)   54-59 (-4)   40-45        65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+2)  66-71 (+6)   95-100       43-48        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6        W  5         LGT/VAR      SW  7        

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           60           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       4            2                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.19         0.12         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4900                      3800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 16                      SW 15        

DISPERSION                         40 FAIR                   21 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  7                     SW  5        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  7 G15    W  7         LGT/VAR      SW  9 G16    



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS NEAR 40. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 

40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. 

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 

50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-170200-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

851 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      43-48 (-6)   51-56 (-7)   39-44        64-69        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+4)  65-70 (+5)   95-100       37-42        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  6                      LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  6         LGT/VAR      W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           60           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            2                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.09         0.13         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5100                      4100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 16                      W 13         

DISPERSION                         32 FAIR                   14 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  7                      LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  5         W  8 G16     W  5         W  7         



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 40. NORTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS 

THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-170200-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

851 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      44-49 (-2)   52-57 (+1)   39-44        65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+2)  58-63 (-8)   95-100       35-40        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  5                      LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6        W  5         LGT/VAR      SW  7        

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           50           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.09         0.08         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5100                      4400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 13                      SW 15        

DISPERSION                         21 FAIR                   17 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  7                      SW  5        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  7 G17    W  6         LGT/VAR      SW  9 G17    



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS 

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 40S. 

HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 

LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO 

UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-170200-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

851 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (-1)   58-63 (+2)   39-44        69-74        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   53-58 (-13)  92-97        36-41        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           20           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   2 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.02         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4800                      3600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 12                      SW 12        

DISPERSION                         28 FAIR                   15 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  5                      LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        NW  6        LGT/VAR      SW  8        



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID

60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. 

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-170200-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

851 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      43-48 (-3)   58-63 (+2)   37-42        69-74        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (-1)  51-56 (-17)  89-94        32-37        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           20           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   2 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.03         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5000                      4100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 13                      W 10         

DISPERSION                         28 FAIR                   15 GEN POOR  

MAX LVORI                          4                         5            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  6                      LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        NW  5        LGT/VAR      SW  7        



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS LESS 

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS 

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 

40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 

MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S 

TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. 

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-170200-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

851 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (-5)   57-62 (-4)   41-46        68-73        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+3)  60-65 (-1)   95-100       39-44        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6        W  6         LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           40           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       3            1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.16         0.10         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4800                      3300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 16                      SW 14        

DISPERSION                         45 GEN GOOD               22 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  8                     SW  5        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  7 G15    W  7         LGT/VAR      SW  8 G15    



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. 

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. EAST 

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 

40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID

60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-170200-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

851 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      46-51 (-3)   57-62 (0)    41-46        70-75        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+3)  59-64 (-4)   95-100       40-45        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  5                      LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           30           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       3            1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.15         0.05         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4600                      3000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 13                      SW 15        

DISPERSION                         36 FAIR                   22 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  6                      SW  5        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6        W  5         LGT/VAR      SW  8 G16    



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. 

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S

TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. 

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-170200-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

851 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      47-52 (-2)   58-63 (+2)   42-47        72-77        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+2)  56-61 (-6)   95-100       39-44        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  5                      LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  5        LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           20           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                             

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   2 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.01         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4700                      2800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 13                      SW 14        

DISPERSION                         38 FAIR                   19 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  6                      LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        NW  7        LGT/VAR      SW  8        



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS NEAR 50. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 40S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 

40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S 

TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S.

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



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