

479 

FNUS54 KMRX 150920

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

520 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014



.DISCUSSION...

 A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN 

APPALACHIAN REGION TODAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER 

THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING INTO 

THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MUCH 

OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-161030-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

520 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      58-63 (-9)   45-50 (-4)   56-61        

RH % (24H TREND)      63-68 (0)    95-100 (+4)  67-72        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6        LGT/VAR      W  5         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           60           50           

PRECIP DURATION       1            2            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.13         0.11         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5300                      4800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 14                     W 16         

DISPERSION            41 GEN GOOD               39 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  5                     SW  5        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  8        SW  5        W  7         



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S

TO MID 60S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID

50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-161030-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

520 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (-10)  43-48 (-6)   54-59        

RH % (24H TREND)      64-69 (-4)   95-100 (+7)  66-71        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  6         LGT/VAR      W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           50           50           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.08         0.12         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5500                      5000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 14                      W 16         

DISPERSION            33 FAIR                   30 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  5                      NW  5        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  8         W  5         W  7         



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 70S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S

TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO 60S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-161030-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

520 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (-7)   42-47 (-4)   55-60        

RH % (24H TREND)      63-68 (-11)  95-100 (+4)  58-63        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  6                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  7        SW  6        W  5         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           40           40           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.07         0.07         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5400                      5000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 16                     W 16         

DISPERSION            33 FAIR                   26 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  8 G15                 W  5         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  9 G16    SW  7 G16    W  7         



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 70S.

NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID

60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-161030-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

520 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      58-63 (-5)   45-50 (-1)   60-65        

RH % (24H TREND)      62-67 (-13)  95-100 (+1)  53-58        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  5                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           40           20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   2 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.05         0.02         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5300                      4700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 16                     W 14         

DISPERSION            45 GEN GOOD               32 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  7                     LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  9        SW  6        W  5         



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER

MIDNIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S.

NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID

50S TO UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID

50S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-161030-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

520 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (-7)   45-50 (-1)   61-66        

RH % (24H TREND)      64-69 (-15)  95-100 (0)   51-56        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           40           20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   2 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.04         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5700                      4900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 15                     W 13         

DISPERSION            44 GEN GOOD               30 FAIR      

MAX LVORI             4                         4            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  6 G15                 LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  8        SW  5        LGT/VAR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT

WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

50S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-161030-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

520 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (-11)  46-51 (-4)   59-64        

RH % (24H TREND)      63-68 (-1)   95-100 (+6)  61-66        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6        LGT/VAR      W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           50           40           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.11         0.09         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5200                      4700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 15                     W 15         

DISPERSION            49 GEN GOOD               42 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  5                     LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  9        SW  5        W  7         



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S

TO MID 60S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID

50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-161030-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

520 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (-7)   46-51 (-3)   59-64        

RH % (24H TREND)      63-68 (-6)   95-100 (+4)  58-63        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  5                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           40           30           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.09         0.04         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4900                      4500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 16                     W 14         

DISPERSION            50 GEN GOOD               40 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  7                     LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  8        SW  5        W  5         



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 50. WEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID

50S TO UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S

TO LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-161030-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

520 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (-5)   47-52 (-2)   60-65        

RH % (24H TREND)      62-67 (-5)   95-100 (+4)  54-59        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  5                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6        LGT/VAR      NW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   2 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.04         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4800                      4600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 16                     W 15         

DISPERSION            50 GEN GOOD               44 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  7                     W  5         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  8        SW  5        NW  6        



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS NEAR 50. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

50S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO

LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



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