

331 

FNUS54 KMRX 150344 AAB

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

1144 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014



.DISCUSSION...

 

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN 

REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW BEHIND IT PRODUCING 

SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE 

EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR MOST OF THE 

WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-160445-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

1144 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (-13)  60-65 (-7)   45-50        56-61        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+15) 56-61 (-7)   95-100       63-68        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  8 G22    SW  5        LGT/VAR      W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           50           50           40           

PRECIP DURATION       3            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.45         0.07         0.08         0.07         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5400                      4300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW  9                     W 12         

DISPERSION                         28 FAIR                   23 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SW  5        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  9 G27    SW  6        SW  5        W  7         



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO MID 60S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-160445-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1144 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (-12)  59-64 (-7)   44-49        54-59        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+11) 56-61 (-13)  95-100       65-70        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  7 G27    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           40           40           30           

PRECIP DURATION       3            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.55         0.05         0.06         0.05         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5200                      4400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W  9                      W 13         

DISPERSION                         19 GEN POOR               18 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   W  5         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  9 G34    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  7 G15     



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 70S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-160445-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

1144 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      46-51 (-13)  56-61 (-7)   44-49        54-59        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+6)  58-63 (-19)  95-100       62-67        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   W  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  8 G21    W  5         SW  5        W  5         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           50           30           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.27         0.05         0.04         0.04         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5400                      4600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 10                     W 14         

DISPERSION                         21 FAIR                   16 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   W  7         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 10 G27    W  7         SW  6 G15    W  7         



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 70S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 60S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-160445-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1144 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      46-51 (-15)  60-65 (-3)   45-50        59-64        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+4)  55-60 (-24)  92-97        55-60        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  7 G16    SW  6        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           40           30           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.08         0.05         0.03         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5400                      4400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 13                     W 12         

DISPERSION                         35 FAIR                   23 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6                     W  5         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  9 G21    SW  8        SW  6        NW  5        



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID

50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

50S TO MID 60S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-160445-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

1144 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      46-51 (-15)  60-65 (-4)   44-49        58-63        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   55-60 (-29)  87-92        53-58        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6 G15    SW  6        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           40           20           20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.16         0.03         0.03         0.02         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5500                      4400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 10                     W 12         

DISPERSION                         28 FAIR                   22 FAIR      

MAX LVORI                          4                         4            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     W  5         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  8 G19    SW  7        SW  5        NW  6        



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-160445-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

1144 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      50-55 (-14)  62-67 (-8)   46-51        59-64        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+11) 54-59 (-10)  95-100       60-65        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  6 G16     W  6         LGT/VAR      W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           50           40           40           

PRECIP DURATION       3            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.42         0.06         0.06         0.06         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5200                      4200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 10                     W 14         

DISPERSION                         33 FAIR                   32 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SW  6        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  8 G20     W  7 G16     SW  5        W  8 G16     



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-160445-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

1144 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (-14)  60-65 (-6)   46-51        60-65        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+9)  58-63 (-13)  93-98        57-62        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  7        SW  6        LGT/VAR      W  5         

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           60           30           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.10         0.08         0.05         0.05         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5100                      4000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 13                     W 13         

DISPERSION                         42 GEN GOOD               29 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  5                      W  6         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  8 G16    SW  8 G16    SW  6        W  6         



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING

BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

50S TO LOWER 70S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-160445-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

1144 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (-15)  60-65 (-4)   46-51        62-67        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+7)  58-63 (-11)  92-97        53-58        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     W  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6        SW  6        SW  5        LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           50           20           20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.06         0.03         0.02         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4800                      4100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 14                     W 13         

DISPERSION                         42 GEN GOOD               32 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6                     W  6         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  7        SW  8        SW  6        NW  6        



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID

60S TO LOWER 70S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND

50. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

60S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



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