

418 

FNUS54 KMRX 140756

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

356 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014



.DISCUSSION...

 

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI 

VALLEY WILL PUSH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE 

SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TODAY.  A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW 

BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE 

REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-150900-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

356 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      70-75 (-4)   50-55 (-12)  60-65        

RH % (24H TREND)      57-62 (+4)   95-100 (+8)  55-60        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S 17 G32                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 15 G32     SW  6 G20    SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           80           50           

PRECIP DURATION       4            2            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.71         0.25         0.09         

LAL                   3            1            1            

LASI                  3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3700                      5100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 31                      W 13         

DISPERSION            43 GEN GOOD               33 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S 21 G40                  SW  5        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 19 G40     SW  8 G25    SW  7        



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 40S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID

50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S

TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-150900-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

356 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      WED          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      68-73 (-2)   49-54 (-12)  58-63        

RH % (24H TREND)      62-67 (+4)   94-99 (+5)   56-61        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE 23 G42                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE 21 G41    SW  8 G30    W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          80           40           

PRECIP DURATION       4            3            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.80         0.36         0.09         

LAL                   3            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3700                      5200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SE 32                     W 12         

DISPERSION            24 FAIR                   23 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE 29 G53                 NW  5        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE 26 G51    SW 10 G37    W  7         



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 40S.

WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S

TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-150900-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

356 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      WED          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      65-70 (-6)   46-51 (-13)  57-62        

RH % (24H TREND)      60-65 (+1)   92-97 (+3)   56-61        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S 24 G46                  SW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 13 G39     SW  6 G16    SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          60           30           

PRECIP DURATION       7            2            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.87         0.02         0.09         

LAL                   3            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4000                      5400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 33                      SW 16        

DISPERSION            24 FAIR                   31 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S 30 G57                  SW  7 G16    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 17 G49     SW  8 G20    SW  9 G16    



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

COLDER. LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S

TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID

50S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-150900-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

356 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      WED          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      68-73 (-6)   47-52 (-14)  59-64        

RH % (24H TREND)      59-64 (+3)   91-96 (+2)   56-61        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S 18 G36                  SW  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  9 G26    SW  5        SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          30           30           

PRECIP DURATION       7            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.84         0.02         0.08         

LAL                   3            1            1            

LASI                  4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3800                      5000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 29                      SW 15        

DISPERSION            43 GEN GOOD               37 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S 23 G45                  SW  7 G16    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 11 G33    SW  7 G15    SW  8 G17    



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID

40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S

TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-150900-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

356 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      WED          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      68-73 (-5)   47-52 (-14)  60-65        

RH % (24H TREND)      63-68 (+4)   91-96 (0)    56-61        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S 15 G27                  SW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 10 G24     LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          30           30           

PRECIP DURATION       8            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         1.08         0.02         0.05         

LAL                   3            1            1            

LASI                  3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3900                      5300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SE 28                     SW 15        

DISPERSION            38 FAIR                   38 FAIR      

MAX LVORI             5                         4            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S 18 G34                  SW  6        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 12 G30     SW  5        SW  8 G16    



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID

40S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S

TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S

TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-150900-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

356 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      WED          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      71-76 (-5)   50-55 (-14)  61-66        

RH % (24H TREND)      59-64 (+7)   93-98 (+6)   55-60        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE 15 G28                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 12 G28     SW  5        W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           70           40           

PRECIP DURATION       5            2            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.87         0.11         0.09         

LAL                   3            1            1            

LASI                  3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3500                      5000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 30                      W 14         

DISPERSION            51 GEN GOOD               41 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE 19 G36                 SW  5        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 15 G35     SW  6 G18    W  8 G15     



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

MID 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S

TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO

LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-150900-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

356 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      WED          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      69-74 (-8)   48-53 (-15)  61-66        

RH % (24H TREND)      57-62 (+2)   94-99 (+8)   56-61        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S 14 G26                  S  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  9 G22    LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           40           40           

PRECIP DURATION       7            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.80         0.02         0.12         

LAL                   3            1            1            

LASI                  4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3600                      4800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 28                      SW 16        

DISPERSION            56 GEN GOOD               48 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S 17 G33                  S  7 G16     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 11 G27    SW  5        SW  8 G16    



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS NEAR 70.

WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID

60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-150900-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

356 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      67-72 (-10)  48-53 (-16)  60-65        

RH % (24H TREND)      55-60 (+1)   94-99 (+9)   59-64        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S 13 G26                  SW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  8 G16    LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           20           30           

PRECIP DURATION       5            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.79         0.02         0.08         

LAL                   3            1            1            

LASI                  4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3800                      4600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 28                      SW 16        

DISPERSION            63 GOOD                   47 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S 17 G33                  SW  7 G16    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 11 G20    SW  5        SW  8 G16    



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND

50. HIGHS NEAR 70. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



