

823 

FNUS54 KMRX 051521 AAA

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

1121 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014



.DISCUSSION...

 

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN 

APPALACHIAN REGION TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN FIVE AND TEN 

DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A RAPID WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP 

TONIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO 

TUESDAY. WET WEATHER RETURNS AS WELL.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-061630-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

1121 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (+5)   40-45 (+9)   64-69        

RH % (24H TREND)      33-38 (-2)   84-89 (-2)   38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  5                     SW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  7        S  6         SW  7        

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            50           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    8 AM         

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.20         

LAL                   1            1            4            

LASI                  5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4900                      5300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 14                     SW 25        

DISPERSION            35 FAIR                   71 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  7 G17                 SW  7 G17    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  9 G17    S  7 G18     SW  9 G17    



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-061630-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1121 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      55-60 (+4)   40-45 (+11)  63-68        

RH % (24H TREND)      32-37 (-4)   74-79 (-12)  36-41        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  6 G15                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  7 G15     S  5 G15     SW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            30           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    12 PM        

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.14         

LAL                   1            1            3            

LASI                  5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4900                      5300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 14                      SW 18        

DISPERSION            24 FAIR                   41 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  8 G19                  SW  6        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  9 G19     S  7 G19     SW  6        



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE 60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-061630-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

1121 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (+6)   40-45 (+11)  65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      31-36 (-5)   77-82 (-9)   34-39        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  6                      SW  7        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  7         S 10 G26     SW  7        

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            30           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    12 PM        

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.20         

LAL                   1            1            3            

LASI                  5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4900                      5400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 14                      SW 24        

DISPERSION            20 GEN POOR               46 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  8 G17                  SW  9 G18    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  9 G18     S 13 G32     SW  9 G18    



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 40S

TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 70S. WEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-061630-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1121 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      62-67 (+6)   42-47 (+11)  70-75        

RH % (24H TREND)      30-35 (-2)   81-86 (-5)   36-41        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   SW  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6        S  8 G18     S  7         

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            30           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    12 PM        

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.24         

LAL                   1            1            3            

LASI                  5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4900                      4800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 12                      SW 22        

DISPERSION            28 FAIR                   51 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  5                     SW  8 G17    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  8 G16    S 10 G23     S  8 G16     



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-061630-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

1121 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      61-66 (+7)   40-45 (+11)  69-74        

RH % (24H TREND)      29-34 (-5)   82-87 (-4)   34-39        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   SW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        S  6         S  6         

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            30           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    12 PM        

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.20         

LAL                   1            1            3            

LASI                  5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5000                      5300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 12                      SW 18        

DISPERSION            27 FAIR                   49 GEN GOOD  

MAX LVORI             4                         3            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  5                      SW  6        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  7        S  8 G18     S  7         



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-061630-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

1121 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (+4)   40-45 (+9)   67-72        

RH % (24H TREND)      30-35 (-3)   88-93 (+1)   36-41        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  5                     SW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  7        LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            40           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    8 AM         

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.20         

LAL                   1            1            3            

LASI                  5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4700                      4800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 13                     SW 24        

DISPERSION            36 FAIR                   70 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  6 G17                 SW  7 G15    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  9 G17    S  5         SW  7        



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTH

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-061630-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

1121 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      62-67 (+6)   43-48 (+11)  68-73        

RH % (24H TREND)      29-34 (-3)   83-88 (-3)   39-44        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  5                     SW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6        S  7 G15     SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            50           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    8 AM         

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.27         

LAL                   1            1            4            

LASI                  5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4600                      4400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 13                     SW 25        

DISPERSION            37 FAIR                   68 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  6                     SW  7 G16    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  9 G16    S  9 G19     SW  8 G15    



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 40S

TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-061630-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

1121 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      65-70 (+6)   46-51 (+12)  69-74        

RH % (24H TREND)      28-33 (0)    81-86 (-5)   41-46        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   SW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  7        S  7         S  6         

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            40           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    8 AM         

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.31         

LAL                   1            1            4            

LASI                  5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4600                      3500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 13                     SW 22        

DISPERSION            36 FAIR                   44 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  5                     SW  6 G15    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  9 G17    S  9 G18     S  8 G15     



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE

50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



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