

199 

FNUS54 KMRX 041521 AAA

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

1121 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014



.DISCUSSION...

 

UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION 

TODAY...BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE 

EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S REGION WIDE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY 

SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF 

THE AREA. A RAPID WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR EARLY NEXT 

WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY MONDAY 

NIGHT AND TUESDAY.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-051630-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

1121 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      53-58 (-18)  30-35 (-9)   57-62        

RH % (24H TREND)      31-36 (-27)  81-86 (-16)  24-29        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  9 G17                  SW  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 11 G20     W  6         SW  7        

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION                                              

PRECIP BEGIN                                                 

PRECIP END                                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  5                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7500                      5500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 24                      SW 14        

DISPERSION            112 VERY GOOD             40 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W 11 G22                  SW  7 G17    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 13 G25     W  7         SW  9 G17    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO

MID 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-051630-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1121 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      51-56 (-18)  29-34 (-10)  56-61        

RH % (24H TREND)      34-39 (-26)  76-81 (-21)  22-27        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W 10 G19                  W  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 12 G23     W  7 G15     W  7 G15     

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION                                              

PRECIP BEGIN                                                 

PRECIP END                                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  5                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7400                      5400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 26                      W 14         

DISPERSION            106 VERY GOOD             31 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W 13 G24                  W  8 G18     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 15 G29     W  9 G19     W  9 G18     



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-051630-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

1121 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      51-56 (-17)  29-34 (-10)  57-62        

RH % (24H TREND)      31-36 (-25)  80-85 (-11)  20-25        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW  9 G19                 W  6 G15     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 12 G21     W  7 G17     W  7 G16     

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION                                              

PRECIP BEGIN                                                 

PRECIP END                                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  5                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7100                      5200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 23                      W 14         

DISPERSION            79 GOOD                   25 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW 11 G23                 W  8 G18     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 14 G27     W  9 G22     W  9 G20     



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND

50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-051630-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1121 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (-16)  31-36 (-9)   63-68        

RH % (24H TREND)      28-33 (-25)  74-79 (-13)  21-26        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW  8 G16                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 10 G19     W  5         SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION                                              

PRECIP BEGIN                                                 

PRECIP END                                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  5                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6900                      5300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW 22                     W 12         

DISPERSION            90 GOOD                   33 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW 10 G21                 SW  5        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 12 G24     W  6 G15     SW  8        



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S.

SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID

60S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-051630-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

1121 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      54-59 (-16)  29-34 (-11)  62-67        

RH % (24H TREND)      29-34 (-25)  80-85 (-8)   19-24        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW  9 G17                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 10 G19    NW  5        W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION                                              

PRECIP BEGIN                                                 

PRECIP END                                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  5                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6900                      5500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW 23                     W 13         

DISPERSION            90 GOOD                   33 FAIR      

MAX LVORI             3                         3            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW 12 G22                 W  5 G15     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 13 G24    NW  6 G16    W  8         



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-051630-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

1121 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (-18)  30-35 (-10)  60-65        

RH % (24H TREND)      30-35 (-26)  82-87 (-15)  23-28        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  9 G17                  SW  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 11 G19     LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION                                              

PRECIP BEGIN                                                 

PRECIP END                                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  5                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7400                      5200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 24                      W 13         

DISPERSION            122 VERY GOOD             41 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W 12 G22                  SW  7 G17    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 13 G24     W  5         SW  8 G17    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-051630-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

1121 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (-17)  32-37 (-8)   63-68        

RH % (24H TREND)      28-33 (-26)  79-84 (-13)  23-28        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  7 G16                  SW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 10 G17     LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION                                              

PRECIP BEGIN                                                 

PRECIP END                                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  5                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7200                      5000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 22                      SW 13        

DISPERSION            111 VERY GOOD             40 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  9 G20                  SW  7        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 12 G22     LGT/VAR      SW  8        



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S

TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-051630-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

1121 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (-16)  33-38 (-8)   65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      27-32 (-22)  80-85 (-9)   22-27        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW  6 G15                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  9 G18     LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION                                              

PRECIP BEGIN                                                 

PRECIP END                                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  5                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6700                      4700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW 21                     SW 12        

DISPERSION            100 GOOD                  36 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW  8 G19                 SW  5        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 12 G22     W  5 G16     SW  8        



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S

TO LOWER 80S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S

TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



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