

419 

FNUS54 KMRX 021909

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

309 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014



.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...ALONG 

WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. 





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-032015-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

309 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (+7)   71-76 (-8)   42-47        52-57        

RH % (24H TREND)      83-88 (-4)   60-65 (+27)  95-100       31-36        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  9 G18                  W  8 G16     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  9 G16    SW  7 G15    W  8 G16     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           100          70           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            5            2                         

PRECIP BEGIN          2 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.45         0.13         0.00         

LAL                   2            5            5            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5200                      6500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 24                     W 26         

DISPERSION                         64 GOOD                   101 VERY GOOD

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 11 G22                  W 11 G20     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW 11 G20    SW  9 G19    W 10 G21     



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

50S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-032015-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

309 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      53-58 (+6)   69-74 (-7)   42-47        51-56        

RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (-1)   60-65 (+26)  95-100       29-34        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  8 G17                  NW 10 G19    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  5         SW  6        SW  7 G18    W  9 G18     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           100          70           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            5            2                         

PRECIP BEGIN          5 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.52         0.14         0.00         

LAL                   1            5            5            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5600                      7600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 17                     W 25         

DISPERSION                         42 GEN GOOD               108 VERY GOOD

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 10 G22                  NW 13 G24    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  6 G16     SW  7 G15    SW  9 G22    W 11 G23     



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

50S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-032015-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

309 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      54-59 (+7)   70-75 (-7)   39-44        52-57        

RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (+4)   63-68 (+27)  95-100       25-30        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 11 G25                 NW  8 G17    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  7 G17     SW  9 G17    SW 10 G20    W  9 G18     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           100          60           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            6            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          2 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   2 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.79         0.05         0.00         

LAL                   1            5            4            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6200                      7500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 25                     W 20         

DISPERSION                         65 GOOD                   75 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 14 G31                 NW 11 G22    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  9 G21     SW 11 G21    SW 12 G26    W 11 G22     



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S.

SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

50S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 50S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-032015-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

309 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        CLOUDY       PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      58-63 (+10)  72-77 (-7)   43-48        59-64        

RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (0)    64-69 (+23)  93-98        21-26        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  9 G17                  NW  8 G15    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  7         SW  9 G17    W  7 G16     W  8 G16     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           100          30           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            7            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          2 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   2 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.14         0.97         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   2            5            4            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5400                      7200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 25                     NW 21        

DISPERSION                         71 GOOD                   93 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 11 G21                  NW 10 G19    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8 G18     SW 11 G21    W  9 G20     W 10 G20     



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

60S TO MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S

TO 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-032015-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

309 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        CLOUDY       PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (+11)  73-78 (-6)   43-48        60-65        

RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (-2)   64-69 (+23)  88-93        18-23        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  7                      NW  9 G17    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  6         SW  8        SW  7 G16    NW  9 G17    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           100          50           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            7            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          2 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   2 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.11         1.13         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   2            5            4            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6400                      7900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 21                     NW 23        

DISPERSION                         72 GOOD                   112 VERY GOOD

MAX LVORI                          4                         3            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  8 G18                  NW 12 G21    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  7 G15     SW 10 G18    SW  9 G20    NW 11 G21    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO

LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50.

HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S

TO UPPER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-032015-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

309 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (+6)   74-79 (-7)   44-49        56-61        

RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (+1)   58-63 (+25)  95-100       26-31        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  7 G15                  W  9 G17     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  8 G16    SW  7 G16    W  9 G17     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           100          60           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            5            2                         

PRECIP BEGIN          5 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.54         0.09         0.00         

LAL                   1            5            5            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4800                      6200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 23                     W 25         

DISPERSION                         67 GOOD                   102 VERY GOOD

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  9 G19                  W 11 G21     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW 10 G20    SW  8 G20    W 11 G22     



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO

LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-032015-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

309 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      60-65 (+8)   74-79 (-7)   42-47        57-62        

RH % (24H TREND)      85-90 (-5)   60-65 (+22)  95-100       24-29        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  9 G16                  W  7 G16     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  8 G16    W  8 G17     W  8 G16     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           100          40           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            5            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          2 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   2 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.11         0.58         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   2            5            4            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4700                      6100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 28                     W 23         

DISPERSION                         82 GOOD                   97 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 11 G20                  W  9 G20     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW 10 G21    W 10 G21     W 10 G20     



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO

MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-032015-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

309 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      FRI          FRI NIGHT    SAT          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      62-67 (+9)   74-79 (-8)   44-49        59-64        

RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (-4)   61-66 (+22)  95-100       22-27        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  8 G16                  NW  7 G17    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  5         SW  8 G16    W  8 G18     W  8 G16     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           100          20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            7            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          2 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 AM                     

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.29         0.74         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   2            5            3            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4400                      5900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 25                     W 24         

DISPERSION                         73 GOOD                   96 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 10 G20                  NW  9 G21    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  6         SW 10 G20    W 10 G23     W 10 G21     



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

60S TO MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S

TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



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