

416 

FNUS54 KMRX 011902

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

302 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014



.DISCUSSION...

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN 

APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO 

THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING 

A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER 

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-022015-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

302 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      51-56 (+1)   79-84 (+3)   55-60        73-78        

RH % (24H TREND)      79-84 (-6)   28-33 (-10)  87-92        56-61        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SE  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  7 G16     

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            20           100          

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            5            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    2 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.02         0.43         

LAL                   1            1            3            5            

LASI                               4                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6700                      4200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW  6                     S 16         

DISPERSION                         22 FAIR                   27 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SE  6        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  9 G20     



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER

50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER

40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-022015-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

302 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (+1)   76-81 (+2)   52-57        71-76        

RH % (24H TREND)      75-80 (-7)   27-32 (-11)  92-97        55-60        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  6         

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            20           100          

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            5            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    5 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.02         0.49         

LAL                   1            1            3            5            

LASI                               5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7500                      5100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W  5                      S 14         

DISPERSION                         19 GEN POOR               28 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  7 G15     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  8 G16     



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S.

WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S. WEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 30S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS

IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-022015-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

302 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (0)    77-82 (+2)   53-58        72-77        

RH % (24H TREND)      74-79 (-9)   27-32 (-11)  91-96        60-65        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  7 G15     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  9 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            50           100          

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            7            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    2 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.10         0.80         

LAL                   1            1            3            5            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 8500                      4100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W  7                      SW 21        

DISPERSION                         29 FAIR                   17 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  9 G19     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW 11 G25    



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 60S. WEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. WARMER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER

70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-022015-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

302 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      51-56 (+1)   80-85 (+2)   57-62        75-80        

RH % (24H TREND)      75-80 (-10)  28-33 (-10)  93-98        64-69        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  7 G16     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  5         SW  9 G18    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            50           100          

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            7            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    8 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.23         0.88         

LAL                   1            1            4            5            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6900                      4400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW  7                     S 22         

DISPERSION                         27 FAIR                   43 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  9 G20     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  7 G16     SW 12 G23    



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS

IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S

TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-022015-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

302 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (+2)   79-84 (+1)   55-60        76-81        

RH % (24H TREND)      78-83 (-11)  27-32 (-12)  95-100       60-65        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  7 G16    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            50           100          

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            7            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    8 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.18         0.95         

LAL                   1            1            4            5            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7300                      4800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW  6                     S 17         

DISPERSION                         26 FAIR                   35 FAIR      

MAX LVORI                          3                         4            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  7 G15     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  6         SW  9 G20    



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER

40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTH

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-022015-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

302 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      51-56 (+1)   81-86 (+2)   55-60        75-80        

RH % (24H TREND)      78-83 (-5)   25-30 (-9)   93-98        54-59        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  7 G15     

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            20           100          

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            5            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    5 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.04         0.56         

LAL                   1            1            3            5            

LASI                               5                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6100                      3200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW  3                     S 15         

DISPERSION                         16 GEN POOR               22 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SE  5        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  9 G19     



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER

50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-022015-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

302 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      53-58 (+1)   81-86 (+1)   58-63        75-80        

RH % (24H TREND)      82-87 (-2)   30-35 (-5)   91-96        60-65        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  8 G16    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            60           100          

PRECIP DURATION                                 2            7            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    8 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.18         0.77         

LAL                   1            1            5            5            

LASI                               4                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6100                      3700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW  7                     S 22         

DISPERSION                         29 FAIR                   47 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  7 G17     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW 11 G21    



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 30S

TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S

TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-022015-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

302 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      55-60 (+2)   82-87 (+1)   61-66        74-79        

RH % (24H TREND)      84-89 (-4)   32-37 (-4)   89-94        64-69        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  8 G18     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  6         SW 11 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            80           100          

PRECIP DURATION                                 3            7            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    8 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.41         0.91         

LAL                   1            1            5            5            

LASI                               4                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5900                      4200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW  9                     S 25         

DISPERSION                         35 FAIR                   66 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  9 G22     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  5         S  7 G16     SW 13 G25    



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID

70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



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