

815 

FNUS54 KMRX 111913

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

313 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2014



.DISCUSSION...

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED COLD 

FRONT WILL RESULT IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE 

POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 

APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL 

RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-122015-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

313 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      64-69 (0)    78-83 (+3)   56-61        72-77        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   58-63 (-13)  95-100       42-47        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  6         SW  7        LGT/VAR      NW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           50           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 AM                     

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.36         0.10         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   5            3            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6700                      6800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 14                      NW 16        

DISPERSION                         55 GEN GOOD               66 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     NW  7        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8 G16     SW  9 G17    LGT/VAR      NW  8        



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING

LIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING

LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID

80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-122015-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

313 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      62-67 (0)    76-81 (+3)   56-61        71-76        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (-1)  56-61 (-13)  92-97        41-46        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  5         W  7         W  5         W  8         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           50           30           0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 AM                     

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.25         0.12         0.03         0.00         

LAL                   5            3            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7200                      7300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 14                      NW 18        

DISPERSION                         53 GEN GOOD               73 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  8 G18    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  7         W  9 G18     W  6         W 10 G19     



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID

50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 80S. EAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 60S TO MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO

MID 80S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-122015-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

313 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      61-66 (-2)   77-82 (+5)   57-62        72-77        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+3)  52-57 (-19)  92-97        37-42        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        W  8 G17     LGT/VAR      NW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           30           30           0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 AM                     

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.45         0.07         0.03         0.00         

LAL                   4            3            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7600                      7500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 15                      NW 13        

DISPERSION                         58 GEN GOOD               50 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  5                      LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6        W 10 G21     LGT/VAR      NW  7        



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S.

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 80S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 80S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S

TO UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER

80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER

80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-122015-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

313 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      65-70 (-1)   81-86 (+3)   60-65        77-82        

RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (+3)   50-55 (-15)  92-97        35-40        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  7 G15     LGT/VAR      N  5         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           30           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         12 PM        CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            12 AM        CONTINUING   12 AM                     

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.33         0.09         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   4            3            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 7200                      7100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 14                      N 13         

DISPERSION                         62 GOOD                   56 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  5         W  9 G19     LGT/VAR      N  7         



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S. EAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE

70S TO 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER

90S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-122015-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

313 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      63-68 (-2)   81-86 (+4)   60-65        78-83        

RH % (24H TREND)      94-99 (+3)   50-55 (-15)  95-100       35-40        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  7 G16     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           30           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         12 PM        CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            12 AM        CONTINUING   12 AM                     

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.31         0.09         0.03         0.00         

LAL                   3            3            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 8100                      7600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 15                      N 13         

DISPERSION                         74 GOOD                   59 GEN GOOD  

MAX LVORI                          4                         4            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  9 G20     LGT/VAR      NW  5        



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 50S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S. EAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S

TO UPPER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER

80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-122015-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

313 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      64-69 (-1)   81-86 (+2)   58-63        76-81        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (-1)  52-57 (-12)  95-100       37-42        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  8 G16    LGT/VAR      W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           40           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 AM                     

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.47         0.08         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   4            3            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6400                      6900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 14                      NW 14        

DISPERSION                         59 GEN GOOD               63 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     W  6         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  5         SW 10 G20    LGT/VAR      W  8         



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING

LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S. EAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO

80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER

80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER

80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-122015-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

313 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      66-71 (-1)   82-87 (+2)   59-64        77-82        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  49-54 (-15)  92-97        34-39        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        W  7         LGT/VAR      NW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           30           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 AM                     

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.46         0.04         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   4            3            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6500                      6700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 14                      N 12         

DISPERSION                         63 GOOD                   57 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  7 G15    W  9 G17     LGT/VAR      NW  6        



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. EAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE

70S TO UPPER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER

80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER

80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-122015-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

313 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      65-70 (-4)   82-87 (-1)   59-64        79-84        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+5)  49-54 (-11)  91-96        32-37        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  7         LGT/VAR      N  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           20           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         12 PM        CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            12 AM        CONTINUING   12 AM                     

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.17         0.07         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   3            3            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6200                      6700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 14                      N 12         

DISPERSION                         58 GEN GOOD               57 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     N  5         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        W  9 G16     LGT/VAR      N  7 G15     



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER

60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. EAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER

90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



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