

618 

FNUS54 KMRX 020243 AAA

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014



.DISCUSSION...

 

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN 

REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE 

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY 

HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL 

LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-030345-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      63-68 (+2)   86-91 (+2)   60-65        78-83        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  44-49 (-5)   95-100       48-53        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  6         LGT/VAR      N  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           30           30           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.11         0.08         0.04         

LAL                   3            3            3            3            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5500                      5900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 12                      NW 10        

DISPERSION                         34 FAIR                   34 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     N  7         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6        W  7         W  5         N  8 G16     



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER

60S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTH

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-030345-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      62-67 (+2)   84-89 (+4)   59-64        76-81        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (-1)  45-50 (-9)   95-100       48-53        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  6                      NW  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  6         LGT/VAR      NW  7        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           30           30           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          2 AM         2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.08         0.08         0.04         

LAL                   2            3            3            3            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5900                      5700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 13                      NW 12        

DISPERSION                         33 FAIR                   28 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  7                      NW  8 G15    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  8         LGT/VAR      NW  9 G17    



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER

60S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTH

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-030345-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      61-66 (+2)   85-90 (+5)   60-65        76-81        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   44-49 (-10)  91-96        48-53        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  5                      N  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  7        LGT/VAR      N  7         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          11 PM        2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.07         0.08         0.02         

LAL                   2            3            3            3            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5800                      5600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 13                      N 10         

DISPERSION                         28 FAIR                   22 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  6                      N  6         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  9 G17    W  5         N  9 G16     



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER

60S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S. NORTHEAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. EAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-030345-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      62-67 (+1)   88-93 (+3)   63-68        78-83        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   43-48 (-7)   86-91        45-50        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  7         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  7        LGT/VAR      N  8         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          11 PM        2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.06         0.06         0.02         

LAL                   2            2            3            2            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4800                      5000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 10                     N 14         

DISPERSION                         23 FAIR                   36 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  5                      N 10 G18     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  9 G16    LGT/VAR      N 11 G19     



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID

60S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-030345-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      60-65 (0)    88-93 (+3)   62-67        78-83        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   42-47 (-9)   90-95        47-52        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  7         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  7        LGT/VAR      NW  7        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          11 PM        2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.06         0.04         0.02         

LAL                   2            2            3            3            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5100                      5200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 12                     N 13         

DISPERSION                         27 FAIR                   32 FAIR      

MAX LVORI                          4                         4            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  6                     N  9         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  9 G17    NW  5        NW 10 G18    



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 60. NORTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTH WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-030345-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      64-69 (+2)   87-92 (+1)   61-66        80-85        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (0)   45-50 (-2)   95-100       47-52        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  7         LGT/VAR      NW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           30           30           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          11 PM        2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.10         0.08         0.03         

LAL                   3            3            3            3            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4500                      5400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 12                      NW  9        

DISPERSION                         30 FAIR                   31 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6                     NW  6        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  9 G16     W  5         NW  7 G15    



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER

60S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. NORTH WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-030345-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      67-72 (+3)   88-93 (+2)   62-67        79-84        

RH % (24H TREND)      91-96 (-3)   43-48 (-3)   93-98        44-49        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  5         W  5         N  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           30           30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.12         0.06         0.01         

LAL                   3            3            3            3            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4500                      5100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 10                      N 10         

DISPERSION                         29 FAIR                   35 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  5                      N  6         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        W  7         W  6 G16     N  8 G16     



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID

60S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. NORTHEAST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-030345-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      66-71 (0)    88-93 (+1)   64-69        81-86        

RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (-1)   44-49 (-2)   84-89        41-46        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  7         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      NW  6        N  7         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           20           30           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          11 PM        2 PM         CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            8 AM         CONTINUING   8 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.07         0.04         0.00         

LAL                   3            2            3            1            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4200                      5100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W  9                      N 14         

DISPERSION                         24 FAIR                   45 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   N  9 G17     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  6         NW  7 G17    N  9 G17     



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTH

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 60. NORTHEAST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



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