

464 

FNUS54 KMRX 220708

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

308 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014



.DISCUSSION...



...A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND 

SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RE-

DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH 

THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  THE FRONTAL 

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH 

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND 

SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-230815-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

308 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      78-83 (-2)   54-59 (-5)   74-79        

RH % (24H TREND)      45-50 (+2)   92-97 (+3)   33-38        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  8 G18                  NW  7 G17    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  8 G18     W  7 G15     NW  9 G17    

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.16         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   3            2            1            

LASI                  3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3600                      6100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 17                      NW 17        

DISPERSION            24 FAIR                   62 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W 10 G23                  NW  9 G21    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 10 G23     W  9 G19     NW 12 G22    



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER

80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. NORTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-230815-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

308 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      76-81 (-1)   54-59 (-4)   74-79        

RH % (24H TREND)      42-47 (+2)   91-96 (+10)  33-38        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W 10 G19                  NW  8 G18    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 10 G20     W  9 G18     NW 11 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           20           10           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   2 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.08         0.11         0.01         

LAL                   3            2            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4300                      6300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 22                      NW 20        

DISPERSION            28 FAIR                   58 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W 13 G24                  NW 10 G23    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 13 G25     W 11 G22     NW 14 G25    



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. NORTH

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. NORTH

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS NEAR 50. EAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 80S. WEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER

80S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-230815-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

308 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      78-83 (+3)   55-60 (-1)   76-81        

RH % (24H TREND)      38-43 (0)    90-95 (+13)  34-39        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W 10 G21                  NW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  9 G24     W  5         NW  8        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           20           20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.12         0.12         0.03         

LAL                   4            2            2            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5000                      6500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 21                      NW 16        

DISPERSION            32 FAIR                   45 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W 13 G27                  NW  7 G16    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 12 G30     W  7 G17     NW 10 G19    



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 80S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. EAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 80S. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO

UPPER 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-230815-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

308 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      83-88 (+2)   58-63 (0)    81-86        

RH % (24H TREND)      40-45 (+2)   94-99 (+16)  35-40        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  8 G16                  NW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  8 G15    LGT/VAR      NW  7        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           20           20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.10         0.04         0.04         

LAL                   3            2            3            

LASI                  3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5300                      6300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW 17                     NW 15        

DISPERSION            48 GEN GOOD               54 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W 10 G20                  NW  7 G15    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 10 G19    LGT/VAR      NW  9 G17    



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S.

NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. NORTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID

50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST

AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. NORTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-230815-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

308 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      83-88 (+3)   58-63 (+2)   81-86        

RH % (24H TREND)      38-43 (+3)   93-98 (+13)  35-40        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW  9 G20                 NW  7 G16    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 10 G21    LGT/VAR      NW  9 G16    

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           20           20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.03         0.04         

LAL                   3            2            2            

LASI                  4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5700                      6500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW 20                     NW 17        

DISPERSION            58 GEN GOOD               61 GOOD      

MAX LVORI             3                         4            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW 12 G25                 NW  9 G20    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 13 G26    NW  5 G15    NW 11 G20    



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S.

NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 50. NORTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER

80S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. NORTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-230815-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

308 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      81-86 (-1)   56-61 (-3)   78-83        

RH % (24H TREND)      43-48 (+4)   93-98 (+7)   30-35        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  9 G20                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  9 G22     W  6         NW  8 G15    

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           20           10           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   2 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.14         0.12         0.01         

LAL                   4            2            1            

LASI                  3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4000                      5900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 18                      NW 13        

DISPERSION            41 GEN GOOD               48 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W 10 G26                  N  6         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 11 G27     W  7 G17     NW 10 G19    



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-230815-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

308 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      82-87 (0)    59-64 (0)    80-85        

RH % (24H TREND)      43-48 (+5)   89-94 (+6)   31-36        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  7 G17                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  7 G18     LGT/VAR      N  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           20           20           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.18         0.05         0.02         

LAL                   4            2            3            

LASI                  4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4300                      5800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 17                      NW 10        

DISPERSION            44 GEN GOOD               43 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  9 G21                  N  5         

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  8 G23     W  5         N  8 G16     



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. NORTHEAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER

90S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-230815-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

308 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      85-90 (+3)   61-66 (+3)   82-87        

RH % (24H TREND)      42-47 (+5)   91-96 (+8)   36-41        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  7 G16                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  6        LGT/VAR      N  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           20           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.13         0.03         0.03         

LAL                   4            2            3            

LASI                  4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5000                      5900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW 16                     NW 10        

DISPERSION            52 GEN GOOD               45 GEN GOOD  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  9 G21                  LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  7 G15    LGT/VAR      N  7 G15     



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO

LOWER 90S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



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