

221 

FNUS54 KMRX 170805

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

405 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014



...BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...



.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS 

OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH 

TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE 

MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING TOWARDS 

THE END OF THE WEEK.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-180915-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

405 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (-2)   38-43 (+2)   63-68        

RH % (24H TREND)      44-49 (+2)   91-96 (+8)   35-40        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  8 G18                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  8 G17     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           20           20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.01         0.02         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3900                      3900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 16                      NE  6        

DISPERSION            25 FAIR                   10 POOR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW 10 G23                 NE  5        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 10 G21     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS NEAR 40. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 

AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN 

THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP 

TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-180915-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

405 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      55-60 (-3)   39-44 (+3)   62-67        

RH % (24H TREND)      45-50 (+2)   90-95 (+12)  38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  9 G20                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 10 G19     W  5         LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           20           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.02         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3900                      4000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 18                      NW  6        

DISPERSION            16 GEN POOR               6 VERY POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W 12 G25                  LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 13 G24     W  7 G18     W  5         



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS NEAR 40. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 

10 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS 

THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEST WINDS 5 

TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 

IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 

15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN 

THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 

15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-180915-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

405 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      55-60 (-2)   41-46 (+3)   61-66        

RH % (24H TREND)      48-53 (+6)   90-95 (+10)  42-47        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  8 G18                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  9 G18    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           30           50           

PRECIP DURATION       3            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.15         0.04         0.08         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4000                      4200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 17                      NE  6        

DISPERSION            12 POOR                   6 VERY POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW 10 G23                 NE  5        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 11 G22    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER

MIDNIGHT. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 70S. EAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO 

UPPER 80S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO UPPER 80S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 

15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN 

THE 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-180915-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

405 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      58-63 (-1)   44-49 (+4)   63-68        

RH % (24H TREND)      49-54 (+5)   93-98 (+11)  45-50        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  6 G16                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           40           60           

PRECIP DURATION       3            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.17         0.05         0.22         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3000                      3600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 12                      NE  6        

DISPERSION            9 POOR                    8 POOR       

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  8 G20                 NE  5        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS 

THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTH 

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S 

TO LOWER 90S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. NORTHWEST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-180915-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

405 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      58-63 (-1)   43-48 (+5)   61-66        

RH % (24H TREND)      50-55 (+6)   93-98 (+7)   48-53        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  6 G15                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           40           60           

PRECIP DURATION       3            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.14         0.06         0.27         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3200                      3700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 12                      N  6         

DISPERSION            9 POOR                    7 POOR       

MAX LVORI             4                         6            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  8 G19                  LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT WINDS.

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. 

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO 

LOWER 90S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN 

THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP 

TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-180915-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

405 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (-2)   41-46 (+3)   65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      42-47 (+2)   90-95 (+6)   37-42        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  6 G17                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 10 G20    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           20           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.09         0.02         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3100                      3500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 16                      NE  6        

DISPERSION            21 FAIR                   10 POOR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  7 G21                 NE  5        

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 13 G25    W  5         LGT/VAR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST 

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN 

THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-180915-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

405 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (-2)   42-47 (+3)   65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      46-51 (+7)   91-96 (+10)  38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  5 G17                 E  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  9 G18    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           20           50           

PRECIP DURATION       3            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.16         0.03         0.04         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    2800                      3000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 13                     E  8         

DISPERSION            17 GEN POOR               12 POOR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  6 G21                 E  6 G16     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 10 G23    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. EAST 

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS LESS 

THAN 10 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. WEST WINDS 

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN 

THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. NORTH WINDS LESS 

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-180915-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

405 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      60-65 (-2)   46-51 (+4)   65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      47-52 (+9)   90-95 (+12)  43-48        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   NE  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           40           60           

PRECIP DURATION       3            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.25         0.05         0.15         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    2500                      2700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 12                      NE 10        

DISPERSION            14 GEN POOR               13 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  5                      NE  7 G16    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS 

THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS LESS 

THAN 10 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S 

TO LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S 

TO LOWER 90S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



