

565 

FNUS54 KMRX 160728 AAB

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

600 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014



...BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...



.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS 

OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH 

TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES 

WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF 

NEXT WEEK...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF 

THE WEEK.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-170830-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

600 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (-3)   36-41 (-1)   59-64        

RH % (24H TREND)      36-41 (-26)  87-92 (-3)   40-45        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  6 G16                  SW  6 G15    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  9 G17     SW  5        SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           20           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.02         0.04         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7200                      5000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 17                      SW 13        

DISPERSION            78 GOOD                   32 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  8 G21                  SW  8 G19    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 11 G22     SW  6 G17    SW  8 G17    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

LOWER TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE 

NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 60S. 

NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. NORTHEAST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHEAST 

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S

TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE 80S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-170830-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

600 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      58-63 (-5)   36-41 (-1)   58-63        

RH % (24H TREND)      36-41 (-25)  86-91 (+3)   41-46        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW  9 G19                 W  7 G17     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 11 G20     W  6 G16     LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           20           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.02         0.06         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7600                      5000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 21                      W 12         

DISPERSION            85 GOOD                   21 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW 12 G24                 W  8 G22     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 14 G26     W  8 G20     NW  5        



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

40S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 60S. NORTH 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. NORTHEAST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO 

LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

70S TO MID 80S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-170830-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

600 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (-3)   36-41 (-1)   57-62        

RH % (24H TREND)      36-41 (-27)  82-87 (-5)   42-47        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  7 G15                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  8 G15     W  6         LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           30           40           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.03         0.12         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7600                      4900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 18                      SW  7        

DISPERSION            71 GOOD                   10 POOR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  9 G19                  LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 10 G18     W  7 G18     LGT/VAR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 60S. NORTH 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST 

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S 

TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

70S TO MID 80S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE 80S. WEST WINDS 

5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-170830-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

600 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (-3)   38-43 (-1)   59-64        

RH % (24H TREND)      34-39 (-21)  84-89 (+1)   44-49        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  6 G15                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  7         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           30           40           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.03         0.12         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7400                      4300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 17                      SW  6        

DISPERSION            82 GOOD                   12 POOR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  8 G19                  LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  8 G17     LGT/VAR      W  5         



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S 

TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO

LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO 

LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S 

TO LOWER 90S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S 

TO LOWER 90S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-170830-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

600 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (-5)   37-42 (-1)   59-64        

RH % (24H TREND)      35-40 (-20)  86-91 (+5)   44-49        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW  8 G16                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  9 G16     LGT/VAR      SW  7 G15    

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           30           40           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.03         0.10         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7800                      4800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 20                      SW  9        

DISPERSION            92 GOOD                   20 GEN POOR  

MAX LVORI             4                         3            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW  9 G20                 LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 11 G20     LGT/VAR      SW  9 G19    



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 

40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO

LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST 

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS 

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. 

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. WARMER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN 

THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S 

TO LOWER 90S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-170830-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

600 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      61-66 (-2)   38-43 (-1)   61-66        

RH % (24H TREND)      35-40 (-25)  87-92 (+1)   40-45        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  6 G18                  SW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  9 G19     SW  5        LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           20           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.02         0.07         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6900                      4700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 17                      SW  9        

DISPERSION            82 GOOD                   27 FAIR      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  8 G22                  SW  6 G18    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 12 G24     SW  6        LGT/VAR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO

LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS 

THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S

TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO 

LOWER 90S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-170830-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

600 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      61-66 (0)    39-44 (-1)   61-66        

RH % (24H TREND)      34-39 (-19)  82-87 (-4)   40-45        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  6                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  7         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           20           40           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.02         0.10         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7100                      4500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 17                      SW  6        

DISPERSION            89 GOOD                   17 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  8 G18                 LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  9 G17     SW  5        LGT/VAR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO 

LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 

MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 

80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S 

TO LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO 

LOWER 90S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-170830-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

600 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      62-67 (+2)   41-46 (-1)   62-67        

RH % (24H TREND)      34-39 (-15)  82-87 (-2)   42-47        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  5                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  7         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           30           40           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.03         0.12         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6800                      4000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 17                      E  6         

DISPERSION            87 GOOD                   14 GEN POOR  

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  7 G16                 LGT/VAR      

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  9 G18     LGT/VAR      NE  5        



REMARKS...NONE.



.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S 

TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO 

LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S

TO MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S 

TO LOWER 90S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO 

LOWER 90S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



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