

629 

FNUS54 KMRX 150817

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

417 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014



.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING 

...AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY

RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE

REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING

MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 



VAZ001-002-005-006-008-160930-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

417 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      64-69 (-15)  41-46 (-19)  57-62        

RH % (24H TREND)      57-62 (+15)  90-95 (+6)   39-44        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S  9 G19                  W  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  6 G15     LGT/VAR      W  8 G15     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          40           50           

PRECIP DURATION       7            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.91         0.03         0.04         

LAL                   2            1            1            

LASI                  3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4900                      6900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 13                     W 15         

DISPERSION            32 FAIR                   65 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S 12 G24                  W  7 G17     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  8 G19     NW  5 G16    W 10 G19     



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 40. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID

60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER

80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-160930-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

417 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      64-69 (-13)  41-46 (-19)  56-61        

RH % (24H TREND)      54-59 (+9)   85-90 (+3)   36-41        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S 11 G23                  NW  9 G18    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  7 G17    NW  8 G20    W 11 G21     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          60           20           

PRECIP DURATION       7            2            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   2 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 AM         8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         1.11         0.06         0.01         

LAL                   2            1            1            

LASI                  3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5000                      7000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 14                      W 21         

DISPERSION            24 FAIR                   74 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S 14 G29                  NW 11 G22    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  9 G21    NW 10 G25    W 13 G26     



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO

LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER

80S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-160930-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

417 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      61-66 (-15)  38-43 (-18)  57-62        

RH % (24H TREND)      58-63 (+10)  87-92 (0)    31-36        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  7 G18                  W  7 G18     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  6        NW  8 G17    W 10 G20     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           40           20           

PRECIP DURATION       5            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   2 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   2 AM         8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.38         0.02         0.01         

LAL                   2            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5700                      7800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 10                      W 22         

DISPERSION            23 FAIR                   90 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  9 G23                  W  8 G22     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  7 G16    NW 10 G22    W 13 G26     



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 MPH

AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AFTER

MIDNIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S

TO MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-160930-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

417 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      62-67 (-15)  41-46 (-15)  61-66        

RH % (24H TREND)      49-54 (+3)   84-89 (-5)   28-33        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  6                      SW  7 G18    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  7 G17    NW  8 G17    W 10 G20     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       3                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM                                   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING                             

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.22         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   2            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5700                      7700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 12                      W 21         

DISPERSION            35 FAIR                   103 VERY GOOD

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  8 G16                  SW  8 G23    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  9 G21    NW 10 G21    W 12 G26     



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO

UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO

LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE 70S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S

TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-160930-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

417 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      64-69 (-14)  41-46 (-16)  61-66        

RH % (24H TREND)      47-52 (+3)   82-87 (-4)   27-32        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  6                      W  7 G19     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  9 G20    NW 10 G21    W 10 G20     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       3            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   2 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.29         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   2            1            1            

LASI                  3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    6000                      8700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W  8                      W 22         

DISPERSION            28 FAIR                   124 VERY GOOD

MAX LVORI             4                         3            

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  8 G18                  W  9 G24     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 11 G25    NW 13 G27    W 13 G25     



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID

50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO

LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 70S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-160930-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

417 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      65-70 (-15)  41-46 (-19)  59-64        

RH % (24H TREND)      55-60 (+11)  90-95 (+6)   36-41        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  9 G19                 W  6 G15     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  5 G15     LGT/VAR      W  9 G17     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           40           30           

PRECIP DURATION       6            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.63         0.02         0.04         

LAL                   2            1            1            

LASI                  3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5000                      7000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 13                     W 17         

DISPERSION            37 FAIR                   83 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW 11 G23                 W  8 G19     

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  7 G18     LGT/VAR      W 11 G21     



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S

TO MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO

LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-160930-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

417 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      62-67 (-17)  40-45 (-18)  60-65        

RH % (24H TREND)      50-55 (+5)   85-90 (-2)   32-37        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  8 G17                  SW  6 G15    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  5         NW  5        W  8 G16     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           0            20           

PRECIP DURATION       2                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM                      8 AM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING                8 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.19         0.00         0.10         

LAL                   2            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5500                      6800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 15                      W 18         

DISPERSION            53 GEN GOOD               91 GOOD      

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W  9 G22                  SW  7 G19    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  7 G16     NW  6 G16    W 10 G20     



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 40. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID

70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S

TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-160930-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

417 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLEAR       PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      60-65 (-18)  41-46 (-17)  61-66        

RH % (24H TREND)      48-53 (0)    84-89 (-6)   28-33        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW  7 G17                 SW  7 G18    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  8 G18    NW  6        W  9 G19     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       1                                      

PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM                                   

PRECIP END            5 PM                                   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5500                      6900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW 16                     W 22         

DISPERSION            60 GEN GOOD               110 VERY GOOD

33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW  9 G22                 SW  9 G22    

33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 10 G22    NW  7 G16    W 11 G24     



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

NEAR 40. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S

TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID

70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TD



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