

997 

FNUS54 KMRX 130023 AAA

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

823 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014



.DISCUSSION...

AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN 

APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL 

THEN SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... 

BRINGING A BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MUCH 

COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE 

WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-140130-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

823 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (0)    79-84 (0)    58-63        80-85        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+9)  41-46 (+3)   90-95        40-45        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  5        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            40           30           50           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN                       12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.04         0.02         0.13         

LAL                   2            3            3            4            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6600                      6700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 12                     S 17         

DISPERSION                         45 GEN GOOD               70 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 

NEAR 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN 

THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS 

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 

40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 

HIGHS IN THE 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-140130-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

823 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      55-60 (+2)   77-82 (-2)   55-60        78-83        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+4)  43-48 (+4)   89-94        38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  5         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           30           20           40           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            11 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.05         0.02         0.09         

LAL                   2            3            2            3            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6600                      7200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW  6                     S 21         

DISPERSION                         21 FAIR                   77 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 

IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN 

THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS 

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 

40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 

HIGHS IN THE 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-140130-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

823 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (+2)   75-80 (-3)   55-60        77-82        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+3)  45-50 (+3)   86-91        36-41        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  5         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           30           20           50           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            11 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.05         0.03         0.09         

LAL                   2            3            2            3            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6300                      7100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 10                     S 20         

DISPERSION                         29 FAIR                   65 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN 

THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN 

THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 

40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS 

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 40S. 

HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 40S. 

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO 

LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-140130-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

823 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      58-63 (+1)   78-83 (-5)   56-61        78-83        

RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (+4)   45-50 (+5)   91-96        42-47        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           30           20           50           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            11 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.03         0.05         0.09         

LAL                   2            3            2            3            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5700                      6400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 13                      S 21         

DISPERSION                         38 FAIR                   77 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN 

THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN 

THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 

40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. 

HIGHS IN THE 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. 

HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO 

LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-140130-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

823 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (+1)   77-82 (-4)   55-60        79-84        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+3)  46-51 (+4)   91-96        38-43        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           30           20           50           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            11 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.03         0.04         0.09         

LAL                   2            3            2            3            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6400                      6600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 12                      S 20         

DISPERSION                         41 GEN GOOD               76 GOOD      

MAX LVORI                          4                         4            



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 

NEAR 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN 

THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 

40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. 

HIGHS IN THE 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. 

HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S

TO LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-140130-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

823 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (+1)   81-86 (-2)   58-63        81-86        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+4)  40-45 (+3)   89-94        39-44        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            30           20           50           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN                       12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.05         0.02         0.09         

LAL                   1            3            3            3            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5900                      6500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW  8                     S 15         

DISPERSION                         33 FAIR                   65 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 

NEAR 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS NEAR 

70. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 

40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS LESS 

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 

40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 

40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 

MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO 

LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-140130-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

823 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      59-64 (0)    81-86 (-1)   59-64        80-85        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+6)  43-48 (+5)   90-95        43-48        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  6        LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            40           30           60           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN                       12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.04         0.04         0.12         

LAL                   1            3            3            4            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5900                      6300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 14                     S 18         

DISPERSION                         55 GEN GOOD               83 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN 

THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN 

THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COOLER. LOWS IN THE 

UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 

40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. 

HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO 

LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-140130-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

823 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      61-66 (+2)   82-87 (0)    60-65        78-83        

RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (+2)   42-47 (+3)   91-96        48-53        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  5         LGT/VAR      S  6         

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            40           30           70           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN                       12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.03         0.07         0.14         

LAL                   1            3            3            4            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5800                      6000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 13                      S 23         

DISPERSION                         54 GEN GOOD               96 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN 

THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN 

THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COOLER. LOWS 

IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 

50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 

MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 

50S. HIGHS NEAR 70. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS NEAR 70. NORTH 

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



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