

394 

FNUS54 KMRX 101805

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

205 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014



.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING. 

MAIN THREATS WITH THESE SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ARE 

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE

WILL THEN BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING

OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING 

TEMPERATURES.  





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-111915-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

205 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      52-57 (-3)   76-81 (+9)   56-61        78-83        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+7)  44-49 (-15)  87-92        42-47        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           20           0            20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         8 AM                      8 AM         

PRECIP END            2 AM         8 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.08         0.02         0.00         0.02         

LAL                   3            2            1            2            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5400                      6300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S  3                      N 12         

DISPERSION                         9 POOR                    41 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS NEAR 80. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-111915-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

205 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (-5)   75-80 (+11)  55-60        76-81        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+9)  43-48 (-19)  87-92        43-48        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  5         LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           20           0            20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING                8 AM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   8 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.02         0.00         0.02         

LAL                   3            2            1            2            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5800                      6900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S  3                      N  6         

DISPERSION                         8 POOR                    19 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. COOLER. HIGHS IN

THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-111915-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

205 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      53-58 (-1)   75-80 (+11)  55-60        76-81        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+6)  43-48 (-22)  86-91        43-48        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           20           0            20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         8 AM                      8 AM         

PRECIP END            2 AM         8 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.02         0.00         0.02         

LAL                   3            2            1            2            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5900                      6700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW  3                     N 12         

DISPERSION                         9 POOR                    34 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 60S

TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER

70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S

TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-111915-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

205 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (-1)   78-83 (+9)   58-63        79-84        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+4)  45-50 (-17)  89-94        44-49        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           0            20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         8 AM                      8 AM         

PRECIP END            2 AM         8 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.02         0.00         0.02         

LAL                   2            2            1            2            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5400                      6100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S  5                      N 14         

DISPERSION                         12 POOR                   46 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 60. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 60. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY

IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO

LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO

LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-111915-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

205 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      55-60 (-1)   77-82 (+8)   56-61        77-82        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  46-51 (-14)  90-95        46-51        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S  5         LGT/VAR      S  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           0            20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         8 AM                      8 AM         

PRECIP END            2 AM         8 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.02         0.00         0.02         

LAL                   3            2            1            2            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5800                      6600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S  7                      N 12         

DISPERSION                         21 FAIR                   45 GEN GOOD  

MAX LVORI                          5                         4            



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 60. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH

EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS NEAR 70. NORTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS NEAR 70. WEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S

TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-111915-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

205 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      53-58 (-3)   77-82 (+8)   57-62        80-85        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+5)  45-50 (-13)  88-93        42-47        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           20           0            10           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         8 AM                      8 AM         

PRECIP END            2 AM         8 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.02         0.00         0.01         

LAL                   3            2            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4800                      5500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S  3                      N  8         

DISPERSION                         9 POOR                    30 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. NOT AS WARM. HIGHS

NEAR 70. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER

70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-111915-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

205 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      56-61 (-2)   78-83 (+8)   59-64        81-86        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+8)  46-51 (-14)  88-93        42-47        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           0            10           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         8 AM                      8 AM         

PRECIP END            2 AM         8 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.02         0.00         0.01         

LAL                   3            2            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4700                      5400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S  5                      N 15         

DISPERSION                         15 GEN POOR               53 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. NOT AS WARM. HIGHS

IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO

LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO

LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-111915-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

205 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      58-63 (-1)   80-85 (+9)   60-65        82-87        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+5)  45-50 (-17)  88-93        43-48        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  6         

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           0            20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         8 AM                      8 AM         

PRECIP END            2 AM         8 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.02         0.00         0.01         

LAL                   2            2            1            2            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4800                      5500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S  7                      N 15         

DISPERSION                         22 FAIR                   56 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 60. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID

70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO

LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S

TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



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