

940 

FNUS54 KMRX 030218 AAA

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...UPDATED

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

1018 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014



.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE 

LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 

APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS RATHER WEAK FEATURE MAY PRODUCE A 

FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR.  

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 

EVENING. HOWEVER...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE 

REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS. 





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-040330-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

1018 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      51-56 (+6)   74-79 (0)    52-57        69-74        

RH % (24H TREND)      86-91 (+18)  38-43 (+11)  85-90        39-44        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     SW 11 G22    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  9 G19    LGT/VAR      SW 14 G26    

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           50           20           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          2 AM         CONTINUING   12 AM        CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   5 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.16         0.01         0.24         

LAL                   2            2            3            5            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6100                      6200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 18                     SW 36        

DISPERSION                         66 GOOD                   130 VERY GOOD



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHEAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-040330-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1018 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (+6)   72-77 (-1)   49-54        68-73        

RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (+18)  37-42 (+11)  85-90        35-40        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  5                      SW  9 G21    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  9 G18    LGT/VAR      W 12 G22     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           40           0            70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         2            

PRECIP BEGIN          2 AM         CONTINUING                8 AM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   5 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.09         0.00         0.22         

LAL                   2            2            1            4            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6000                      7200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 20                     SW 32        

DISPERSION                         56 GEN GOOD               123 VERY GOOD



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO

LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-040330-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

1018 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      50-55 (+7)   71-76 (-3)   50-55        66-71        

RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (+14)  37-42 (+13)  75-80        35-40        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  8 G17                 SW 12 G27    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW 12 G23    S  7 G17     SW 14 G29    

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           30           20           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          2 AM         CONTINUING   4 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.03         0.01         0.24         

LAL                   2            2            3            4            

LASI                               5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5200                      6400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 22                     SW 33        

DISPERSION                         39 FAIR                   97 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO

LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.

HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS 10 TO

20 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-040330-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1018 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      51-56 (+6)   75-80 (-3)   52-57        69-74        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+25) 33-38 (+11)  84-89        46-51        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  5 G15                  SW 10 G22    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW 11 G21    S  7         SW 12 G23    

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           0            30           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1                         1            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          2 AM                      12 AM        CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING                CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.00         0.01         0.26         

LAL                   2            2            3            4            

LASI                               5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4600                      5300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 22                      SW 30        

DISPERSION                         48 GEN GOOD               82 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING

TO THE NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID

40S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

15 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-040330-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

1018 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      49-54 (+6)   75-80 (-3)   50-55        68-73        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+27) 33-38 (+12)  86-91        43-48        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5 G15                 SW  8 G19    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW 10 G18    LGT/VAR      SW 12 G22    

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           20           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          2 AM         CONTINUING   4 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   11 AM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.02         0.01         0.25         

LAL                   2            2            3            4            

LASI                               5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5100                      5800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 20                      SW 28        

DISPERSION                         49 GEN GOOD               83 GOOD      

MAX LVORI                          4                         3            



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. NORTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.

HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-040330-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

1018 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      51-56 (+5)   76-81 (0)    51-56        72-77        

RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (+18)  36-41 (+9)   90-95        39-44        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     SW 10 G23    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  8 G17    LGT/VAR      SW 13 G25    

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           40           20           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          2 AM         CONTINUING   12 AM        CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   5 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.07         0.01         0.21         

LAL                   2            2            3            4            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4600                      5800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 16                     SW 35        

DISPERSION                         44 GEN GOOD               129 VERY GOOD



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO

LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S

TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-040330-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

1018 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      54-59 (+6)   76-81 (0)    55-60        70-75        

RH % (24H TREND)      85-90 (+17)  34-39 (+8)   83-88        43-48        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  8 G18                 SW 12 G22    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW 10 G20    S  5         SW 13 G23    

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           30           40           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          11 PM        CONTINUING   12 AM        CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   2 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.08         0.02         0.04         0.21         

LAL                   2            2            4            4            

LASI                               5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      5100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 21                      SW 31        

DISPERSION                         49 GEN GOOD               104 VERY GOOD



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID

40S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.

HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-040330-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

1018 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      55-60 (+7)   77-82 (-2)   57-62        70-75        

RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (+20)  32-37 (+10)  85-90        44-49        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  6 G18                  SW 11 G21    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S 11 G22     S  7         SW 11 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           0            50           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1                         1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          11 PM                     12 AM        CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            8 AM                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.00         0.06         0.20         

LAL                   2            1            4            4            

LASI                               5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4200                      5200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 24                      SW 29        

DISPERSION                         61 GOOD                   98 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID

40S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND

40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



