

430 

FNUS54 KMRX 200951

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

451 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014



.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION 

TONIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND 

THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE 

FRONT...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE REGION 

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE BRISK WINDS WILL HELP TO PUSH 

HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. 





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-211100-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

451 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      63-68 (+2)   41-46 (+3)   48-53        

RH % (24H TREND)      51-56 (+14)  92-97 (+11)  31-36        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE  9 G18                 SW 12 G22    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 13 G27     S 14 G27     W 12 G22     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           100          40           

PRECIP DURATION       1            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.60         0.09         

LAL                   1            5            1            

LASI                  2                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3900                      6500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 32                      W 32         

DISPERSION            51 GEN GOOD               123 VERY GOOD



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN

THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO

LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-211100-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

451 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      61-66 (-2)   42-47 (+4)   44-49        

RH % (24H TREND)      50-55 (+11)  95-100 (+14) 33-38        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE 10 G20                 W 14 G27     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 15 G30     S 18 G31     W 13 G25     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           100          60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.47         0.21         

LAL                   1            5            1            

LASI                  2                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4300                      5800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 32                      W 35         

DISPERSION            42 GEN GOOD               89 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN

THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO

MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-211100-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

451 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      61-66 (-3)   41-46 (-2)   45-50        

RH % (24H TREND)      54-59 (+14)  91-96 (+14)  27-32        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S 11 G27                  W 12 G24     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 19 G35     S 21 G37     W 11 G24     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           100          60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         1.04         0.04         

LAL                   1            5            1            

LASI                  3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5300                      5800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 37                      W 30         

DISPERSION            70 GOOD                   69 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 50S. NORTH

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN

THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-211100-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

451 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      65-70 (-1)   44-49 (-1)   50-55        

RH % (24H TREND)      58-63 (+7)   87-92 (-5)   27-32        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S 11 G24                  W  9 G18     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 18 G31     S 18 G32     W  9 G19     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           100          60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         1.33         0.02         

LAL                   1            5            1            

LASI                  3                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5100                      5500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 33                      W 23         

DISPERSION            88 GOOD                   67 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS NEAR 30. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. NORTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE

AFTERNOON. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO UPPER 30S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-211100-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

451 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      65-70 (0)    45-50 (+1)   50-55        

RH % (24H TREND)      60-65 (+7)   84-89 (-10)  23-28        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S  9 G19                  W 10 G20     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 16 G28     S 17 G28     W  9 G19     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           100          60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         1.10         0.04         

LAL                   1            5            1            

LASI                  3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5300                      5700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 30                      W 26         

DISPERSION            78 GOOD                   78 GOOD      

MAX LVORI             4                         2            



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT WINDS.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-211100-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

451 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      66-71 (+1)   43-48 (+4)   50-55        

RH % (24H TREND)      48-53 (+10)  89-94 (+4)   31-36        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE  9 G18                 W 11 G21     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 11 G21     S 13 G23     W 11 G22     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           100          50           

PRECIP DURATION       1            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.71         0.07         

LAL                   1            5            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3700                      6100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 30                      W 29         

DISPERSION            56 GEN GOOD               114 VERY GOOD



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 30S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN

THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-211100-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

451 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      66-71 (0)    41-46 (-4)   52-57        

RH % (24H TREND)      50-55 (+11)  88-93 (+4)   28-33        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S  9 G22                  SW 10 G21    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 14 G27     S 15 G27     W  9 G21     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           100          30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            6            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         1.13         0.01         

LAL                   1            5            1            

LASI                  3                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4100                      5800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 37                      W 25         

DISPERSION            87 GOOD                   100 GOOD     



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-211100-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

451 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014 /351 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014/



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLEAR       

TEMP (24H TREND)      68-73 (0)    41-46 (-6)   54-59        

RH % (24H TREND)      54-59 (+10)  88-93 (-5)   25-30        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     S 10 G23                  W  9 G19     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 14 G26     S 14 G25     W  8 G18     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           100          20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            7            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   10 AM        

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         1.31         0.01         

LAL                   1            5            1            

LASI                  3                         5            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4200                      5300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 37                      W 22         

DISPERSION            95 GOOD                   79 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. EAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER

40S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTH

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID

30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 30.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE

40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$













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