

229 

FNUS54 KMRX 191955

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

255 PM EST WED FEB 19 2014



.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH 

SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER 

STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE 

FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. 



SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE 

THURSDAY NIGHT. 





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-202100-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

255 PM EST WED FEB 19 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      39-44 (+3)   62-67 (+1)   40-45        50-55        

RH % (24H TREND)      91-96 (-4)   46-51 (+8)   83-88        27-32        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE 10 G24                 SW 12 G23    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S 14 G26     S 15 G28     W 13 G24     

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            20           100          40           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN                       7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.02         0.60         0.12         

LAL                   1            1            5            1            

LASI                               3                                      

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4700                                   

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 35                     N/A          

DISPERSION                         80 GOOD                                



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID

30S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-202100-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

255 PM EST WED FEB 19 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      38-43 (+2)   60-65 (-3)   41-46        49-54        

RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (-5)   47-52 (+8)   90-95        25-30        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE 11 G25                 W 12 G25     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S 13 G25     S 16 G34     W 13 G25     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            20           90           60           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN                       CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.04         0.44         0.21         

LAL                   1            1            3            2            

LASI                               3                                      

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5200                                   

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 30                     N/A          

DISPERSION                         65 GOOD                                



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER

MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...



$$



TNZ072-074-202100-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

255 PM EST WED FEB 19 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      44-49 (+2)   60-65 (-4)   41-46        49-54        

RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (0)    49-54 (+9)   79-84        15-20        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 12 G31                  W 11 G24     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S 19 G38     S 23 G45     W 11 G23     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           30           100          60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.06         0.87         0.11         

LAL                   1            1            5            1            

LASI                               3                                      

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5000                                   

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 40                     N/A          

DISPERSION                         65 GOOD                                



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTH WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 60S. NORTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. WEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...



$$



TNZ087-102-202100-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

255 PM EST WED FEB 19 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      47-52 (+2)   64-69 (-2)   43-48        54-59        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (-2)   54-59 (+3)   77-82        15-20        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 11 G27                  W  7 G18     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S 17 G32     S 20 G38     W  9 G19     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           30           100          60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.07         0.94         0.07         

LAL                   1            1            5            1            

LASI                               3                                      

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3700                                   

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 37                     N/A          

DISPERSION                         52 GEN GOOD                            



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. EAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE

AFTERNOON. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTH

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID

50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND

30. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...



$$



NCZ060-061-202100-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

255 PM EST WED FEB 19 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      47-52 (+3)   65-70 (0)    44-49        54-59        

RH % (24H TREND)      91-96 (-4)   55-60 (+2)   76-81        12-17        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  9 G22                  NW  9 G19    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S 13 G24     S 17 G31     W 10 G20     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           30           100          60           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            6            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.08         0.84         0.12         

LAL                   1            1            5            1            

LASI                               3                                      

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3800                                   

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 33                     N/A          

DISPERSION                         44 GEN GOOD                            

MAX LVORI                          4                                      



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. EAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE

AFTERNOON. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT

WINDS. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID

50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-202100-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

255 PM EST WED FEB 19 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      40-45 (+2)   64-69 (-1)   42-47        52-57        

RH % (24H TREND)      91-96 (-1)   45-50 (+7)   81-86        27-32        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  9 G21                 SW 11 G22    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S 13 G23     S 14 G28     W 12 G22     

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            20           100          50           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN                       7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.02         0.75         0.12         

LAL                   1            1            5            1            

LASI                               3                                      

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4100                                   

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 30                     N/A          

DISPERSION                         68 GOOD                                



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE

AFTERNOON. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID

30S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER

50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S.

WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-202100-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

255 PM EST WED FEB 19 2014



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (+1)   65-70 (-1)   41-46        53-58        

RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (-1)   47-52 (+7)   77-82        26-31        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  9 G25                  SW  9 G20    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S 17 G30     S 18 G34     W 10 G20     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     10           20           100          30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.02         1.12         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            5            1            

LASI                               3                                      

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4400                                   

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SW 41                     N/A          

DISPERSION                         114 VERY GOOD                          



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. EAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE

AFTERNOON. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

LIGHT WINDS. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-202100-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

255 PM EST WED FEB 19 2014 /155 PM CST WED FEB 19 2014/



                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      48-53 (-1)   68-73 (0)    41-46        55-60        

RH % (24H TREND)      91-96 (+7)   50-55 (+6)   77-82        23-28        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 11 G24                  W  8 G18     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      S 17 G30     S 19 G33     W  9 G17     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           100          30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.03         1.19         0.02         

LAL                   1            1            5            1            

LASI                               3                                      

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                                   

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 40                      N/A          

DISPERSION                         100 GOOD                               



REMARKS...NONE.



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. EAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 30S. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTH

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...



$$













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