

761 

FNUS54 KMRX 190848

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

348 AM EST WED FEB 19 2014



.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND 

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION 

BEFORE SOME CLEARING OCCURS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONGER 

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE FOR 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. 





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-201000-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

348 AM EST WED FEB 19 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      57-62 (+4)   40-45 (+4)   62-67        

RH % (24H TREND)      41-46 (+14)  91-96 (+10)  46-51        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  8 G17                 SE 10 G24    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  9 G19     LGT/VAR      S 14 G26     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         1 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            1 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.01         0.02         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5000                      4700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 32                      SW 35        

DISPERSION            84 GOOD                   80 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

MID 50S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. WEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-201000-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

348 AM EST WED FEB 19 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      58-63 (+6)   40-45 (+4)   60-65        

RH % (24H TREND)      46-51 (+23)  89-94 (+4)   48-53        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W 11 G21                  SE 11 G25    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 11 G21     LGT/VAR      S 13 G25     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.01         0.04         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5100                      5200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 37                      SW 30        

DISPERSION            73 GOOD                   65 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...BREEZY. SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 25 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. WEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER

MIDNIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-201000-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

348 AM EST WED FEB 19 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      61-66 (+7)   45-50 (+3)   60-65        

RH % (24H TREND)      49-54 (+29)  87-92 (+1)   48-53        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     W 12 G23                  S 12 G31     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  9 G22     LGT/VAR      S 19 G38     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           30           30           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.04         0.06         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5600                      5000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 35                      SW 40        

DISPERSION            74 GOOD                   65 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDY. SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH SHIFTING

TO THE WEST 5 TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S. WEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S

TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. WEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-201000-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

348 AM EST WED FEB 19 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      63-68 (+4)   48-53 (+3)   64-69        

RH % (24H TREND)      55-60 (+35)  88-93 (-3)   54-59        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  9 G18                 S 11 G27     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  7 G16     LGT/VAR      S 17 G32     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           30           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.05         0.07         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5100                      3700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 29                      SW 37        

DISPERSION            74 GOOD                   52 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...BREEZY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE 40S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST

5 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S

TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. EAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO

UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID

50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND

30. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-201000-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

348 AM EST WED FEB 19 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      63-68 (+3)   49-54 (+5)   65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      58-63 (+32)  89-94 (-5)   55-60        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  9 G16                 S  9 G22     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  8 G16     LGT/VAR      S 13 G24     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           30           30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.08         0.05         0.08         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5600                      3800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 30                      SW 33        

DISPERSION            86 GOOD                   44 GEN GOOD  

MAX LVORI             4                         4            



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN

THE 40S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 5 TO

15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. EAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID

50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-201000-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

348 AM EST WED FEB 19 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      61-66 (+4)   42-47 (+4)   64-69        

RH % (24H TREND)      49-54 (+23)  91-96 (+4)   45-50        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW 10 G18                 SE  9 G21    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  9 G18     LGT/VAR      S 13 G23     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.01         0.02         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4700                      4100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 32                      SW 30        

DISPERSION            89 GOOD                   68 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE

40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER

50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S.

WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-201000-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

348 AM EST WED FEB 19 2014



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      62-67 (+4)   46-51 (+2)   65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      44-49 (+17)  87-92 (+2)   47-52        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  8 G16                 S  9 G25     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  7 G17    LGT/VAR      S 17 G30     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.03         0.02         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4900                      4400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 26                      SW 41        

DISPERSION            84 GOOD                   114 VERY GOOD



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN

THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE

WEST 5 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO

MID 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING

LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-201000-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

348 AM EST WED FEB 19 2014 /248 AM CST WED FEB 19 2014/



                      TODAY        TONIGHT      THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      64-69 (+2)   49-54 (0)    68-73        

RH % (24H TREND)      53-58 (+26)  88-93 (+4)   50-55        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SW  8                     S 11 G24     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  6        LGT/VAR      S 17 G30     

PRECIP TYPE           SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           40           20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.05         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            

LASI                  3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    4800                      4000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 25                      S 40         

DISPERSION            79 GOOD                   100 GOOD     



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN

THE 40S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AFTER

MIDNIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO

MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING

LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$













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