

659 

FNUS54 KMRX 182025

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

325 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014



.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH 

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. 

ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY...BRINGING A GREATER 

CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY 

FRIDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STRONGER FRONT.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-192130-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

325 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      37-42 (+4)   58-63 (+5)   39-44        62-67        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+23) 42-47 (+8)   95-100       53-58        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  8 G17                 SE  5 G16    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8 G18     W  7 G15     LGT/VAR      S 12 G22     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           10           30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          1 AM         CONTINUING   1 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.09         0.01         0.01         0.02         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3800                      4100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 30                      SW 35        

DISPERSION                         44 GEN GOOD               62 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN

THE 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

MID 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. WEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. WEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-192130-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

325 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      38-43 (+4)   56-61 (+4)   39-44        60-65        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+28) 49-54 (+23)  93-98        55-60        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W 13 G25                  SE  6 G15    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 10 G22     W  9 G20     LGT/VAR      S 10 G20     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           20           30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          1 AM         CONTINUING   1 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.10         0.02         0.01         0.03         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3200                      4600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 35                      SW 30        

DISPERSION                         13 GEN POOR               49 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. EAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-192130-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

325 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      43-48 (+10)  57-62 (+3)   44-49        61-66        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+29) 58-63 (+36)  89-94        54-59        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 15 G30                 SW  8 G22    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 12 G29     W 10 G24     LGT/VAR      SW 15 G29    

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           20           30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       5            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.25         0.02         0.02         0.02         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3600                      4300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 33                      SW 40        

DISPERSION                         13 GEN POOR               41 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...BREEZY. SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 25 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S. NORTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 30. SOUTH WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 60S. WEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. NORTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-192130-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

325 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (+10)  63-68 (+4)   47-52        65-70        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+23) 58-63 (+38)  91-96        52-57        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 12 G24                 S  6 G18     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 10 G20     SW  8 G19    LGT/VAR      SW 13 G24    

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           20           30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       5            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.33         0.02         0.02         0.03         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3200                      3000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 28                      SW 37        

DISPERSION                         25 FAIR                   30 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S

TO LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. EAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID

50S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-192130-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

325 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      45-50 (+10)  63-68 (+3)   48-53        66-71        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+21) 59-64 (+33)  92-97        54-59        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 10 G19                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8 G15     W  8 G17     LGT/VAR      SW 10 G18    

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          20           30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       5            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.37         0.02         0.02         0.04         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3200                      3100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 28                      SW 33        

DISPERSION                         21 FAIR                   24 FAIR      

MAX LVORI                          5                         5            



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN

THE LOWER TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTH

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 30. LIGHT

WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID

50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND

30. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-192130-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

325 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      38-43 (+4)   61-66 (+4)   41-46        64-69        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+23) 50-55 (+21)  95-100       51-56        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 10 G19                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  6 G15     W  7 G17     LGT/VAR      S 10 G19     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           20           30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       2            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          1 AM         CONTINUING   1 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.13         0.01         0.01         0.02         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3700                      3500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 29                      SW 30        

DISPERSION                         54 GEN GOOD               52 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN

THE LOWER TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO

LOWER 30S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-192130-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

325 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      43-48 (+11)  64-69 (+6)   45-50        66-71        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+24) 43-48 (+15)  90-95        49-54        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  9 G19                 S  5 G18     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8 G19     W  6 G16     LGT/VAR      SW 14 G25    

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           10           30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       5            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.18         0.01         0.02         0.02         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3700                      3800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 25                      SW 41        

DISPERSION                         52 GEN GOOD               92 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING

TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS NEAR 30. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID

50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-192130-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

325 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014 /225 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014/



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      47-52 (+13)  64-69 (+2)   48-53        68-73        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+24) 52-57 (+25)  89-94        51-56        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW 10 G18                 S  6 G18     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  9 G18     W  6 G16     LGT/VAR      S 13 G23     

PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           10           40           20           

PRECIP DURATION       5            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.25         0.01         0.02         0.02         

LAL                   3            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3400                      3400         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 25                      S 40         

DISPERSION                         48 GEN GOOD               79 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING

TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO

MID 30S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND

30. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 



$$













