

099 

FNUS54 KMRX 171947

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

247 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014



.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE... 

SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. ALONG AND 

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE 

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL 

GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. BRISK...GUSTY...SOUTHERLY 

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL 

WILL END BY SUNRISE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH DAYTIME 

TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S AND 60S. 





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-182100-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

247 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      32-37 (+9)   54-59 (+6)   36-41        53-58        

RH % (24H TREND)      77-82 (-19)  30-35 (-13)  90-95        41-46        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  8 G15                  W  8 G17     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 10 G19     SW  6        LGT/VAR      W  7 G16     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         NONE         SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           0            20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       3                         1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      1 AM                      

PRECIP END            5 AM                      7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.11         0.00         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4600                      4900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 22                      W 20         

DISPERSION                         47 GEN GOOD               47 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO

THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S

TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-182100-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

247 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      33-38 (+12)  52-57 (+4)   37-42        52-57        

RH % (24H TREND)      72-77 (-19)  31-36 (-6)   83-88        44-49        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  9 G19                  W  9 G18     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8 G15     W  5 G16     LGT/VAR      W  8 G16     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           0            20           20           

PRECIP DURATION       3                         1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      1 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            5 AM                      CONTINUING   11 AM        

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.09         0.00         0.01         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4900                      5000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 24                      W 24         

DISPERSION                         43 GEN GOOD               46 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH

SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO

THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-182100-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

247 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      34-39 (+12)  53-58 (+2)   39-44        53-58        

RH % (24H TREND)      73-78 (-16)  33-38 (-2)   80-85        41-46        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   W  8 G21     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  7 G15    LGT/VAR      S  6 G20     W  6 G15     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           0            30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       3                         1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            5 AM                      CONTINUING   11 AM        

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.11         0.00         0.03         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4400                      4500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 14                     W 21         

DISPERSION                         14 GEN POOR               23 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO

15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S. NORTHEAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

30S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-182100-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

247 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      35-40 (+11)  57-62 (+2)   38-43        58-63        

RH % (24H TREND)      80-85 (-15)  31-36 (-11)  93-98        43-48        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  7        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           0            30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       2                         1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            5 AM                      CONTINUING   11 AM        

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.13         0.00         0.05         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3900                      3200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 10                     W 14         

DISPERSION                         17 GEN POOR               13 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO

15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S.

NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.



$$



NCZ060-061-182100-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

247 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      34-39 (+12)  58-63 (+2)   36-41        59-64        

RH % (24H TREND)      82-87 (-13)  29-34 (-9)   95-100       44-49        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         NONE         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           0            30           20           

PRECIP DURATION       3                         1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      7 PM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            5 AM                      CONTINUING   11 AM        

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.11         0.00         0.05         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4900                      3600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 15                     W 16         

DISPERSION                         34 FAIR                   18 GEN POOR  

MAX LVORI                          3                         5            



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE MID 40S. LIGHT WINDS. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S.

NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-182100-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

247 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      33-38 (+12)  56-61 (+4)   36-41        56-61        

RH % (24H TREND)      77-82 (-20)  29-34 (-12)  92-97        43-48        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  6                      W  7 G15     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  8 G15    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  7 G15     

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         NONE         SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           0            20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       3                         1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      1 AM                      

PRECIP END            5 AM                      7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.11         0.00         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               5                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4300                      4200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 15                      W 15         

DISPERSION                         36 FAIR                   35 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST LESS THAN 10 MPH

AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S.

NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID

50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER

50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-182100-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

247 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      34-39 (+9)   57-62 (+3)   40-45        58-63        

RH % (24H TREND)      77-82 (-19)  32-37 (-10)  85-90        36-41        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   W  6         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  9 G17    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         NONE         SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           0            20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       2                         1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      7 PM                      

PRECIP END            5 AM                      7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.13         0.00         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3700                      3800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW  9                     W 10         

DISPERSION                         19 GEN POOR               22 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE

SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

UPPER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-182100-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

247 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014 /147 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014/



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      35-40 (+9)   60-65 (+2)   42-47        60-65        

RH % (24H TREND)      78-83 (-17)  30-35 (-10)  91-96        40-45        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   W  5         

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  9 G16     S  5         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         NONE         SHOWERS      NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           0            30           0            

PRECIP DURATION       2                         1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                      7 PM                      

PRECIP END            4 AM                      7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.11         0.00         0.04         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3800                      3200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW  7                     W  8         

DISPERSION                         16 GEN POOR               15 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS

IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE

50S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE

MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 



$$













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