

544 

FNUS54 KMRX 160312

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

1012 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014



.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA 

TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON 

SUNDAY. PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE

CENTRAL VALLEY AND NORTHWARD TO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT AND 

DIMINISHING SUNDAY MORNING.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-170415-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

1012 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      17-22 (-9)   37-42 (+9)   21-26        45-50        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+1)  55-60 (-1)   88-93        51-56        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6 G15                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  8 G16     LGT/VAR      SE  6        

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           0            20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          12 AM        CONTINUING                1 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   1 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.01         0.00         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3200                      3800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 22                      SW 14        

DISPERSION                         23 FAIR                   22 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S.

SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER

60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER

50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-170415-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1012 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      17-22 (-9)   36-41 (+8)   21-26        45-50        

RH % (24H TREND)      86-91 (0)    50-55 (+4)   83-88        47-52        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  7 G16                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W  7 G19     W  8 G17     NW  6 G15    SE  6        

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           0            20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1                         1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                1 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   1 PM                      CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.01         0.00         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3700                      4700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 28                      S 13         

DISPERSION                         21 FAIR                   20 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. NORTH

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S.

SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO

LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER

60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-170415-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

1012 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      19-24 (-3)   40-45 (+8)   23-28        47-52        

RH % (24H TREND)      89-94 (-5)   43-48 (+10)  82-87        45-50        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  7                      LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  7         LGT/VAR      S  6         

PRECIP TYPE           FLURRIES     NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           0            0            20           

PRECIP DURATION       1                                      1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                                   1 PM         

PRECIP END            7 AM                                   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.00         0.00         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      4500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 26                      SW 15        

DISPERSION                         21 FAIR                   18 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 30S. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. NORTH

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER

60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO

LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER

60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-170415-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

1012 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      20-25 (-6)   44-49 (+11)  25-30        51-56        

RH % (24H TREND)      91-96 (-5)   44-49 (+5)   87-92        50-55        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  5         

PRECIP TYPE           FLURRIES     NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            20           

PRECIP DURATION                                              1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                                 1 PM         

PRECIP END                                                   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3300                      4100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 20                      S 18         

DISPERSION                         20 GEN POOR               32 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE 50S TO MID 60S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO

UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER

60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-170415-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

1012 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      20-25 (-7)   45-50 (+10)  25-30        52-57        

RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (-4)   39-44 (+5)   83-88        44-49        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  5        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            20           

PRECIP DURATION                                              1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                                 1 PM         

PRECIP END                                                   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3500                      5100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 21                      S 16         

DISPERSION                         22 FAIR                   39 FAIR      

MAX LVORI                          4                         3            



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE

SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO

LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS

IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER

60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-170415-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

1012 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      19-24 (-10)  40-45 (+9)   21-26        47-52        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+10) 52-57 (0)    95-100       51-56        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  6         LGT/VAR      S  6         

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           0            0            20           

PRECIP DURATION       1                                      1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                                   1 PM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING                             CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.00         0.00         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2900                      3800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 22                      S 12         

DISPERSION                         27 FAIR                   24 FAIR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO

LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID

60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER

60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-170415-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

1012 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      23-28 (-4)   44-49 (+12)  25-30        49-54        

RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (-4)   45-50 (-1)   92-97        53-58        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  5         LGT/VAR      S  5         

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           0            0            30           

PRECIP DURATION       1                                      1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                                   1 PM         

PRECIP END            7 AM                                   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.00         0.00         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3000                      3800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 21                      S 20         

DISPERSION                         32 FAIR                   43 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID

60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO

LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-170415-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

1012 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014 /912 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014/



                      TONIGHT      SUN          SUN NIGHT    MON          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      24-29 (-1)   47-52 (+14)  27-32        53-58        

RH % (24H TREND)      85-90 (-6)   41-46 (-1)   93-98        49-54        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  6         

PRECIP TYPE           FLURRIES     NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            30           

PRECIP DURATION                                              1            

PRECIP BEGIN                                                 1 PM         

PRECIP END                                                   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2900                      3700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 20                      S 25         

DISPERSION                         29 FAIR                   57 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID

60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER

60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$













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