

303 

FNUS54 KMRX 142006

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

306 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014



.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP 

THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...THEN 

SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF NEW 

SNOW IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-152115-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

306 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      22-27 (-1)   28-33 (-13)  20-25        38-43        

RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (-6)   46-51 (-19)  92-97        53-58        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW 11 G21                 SW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  5         NW 10 G21    LGT/VAR      W  7         

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW/RAIN    SNOW SHOWERS SNOW         SNOW/FZ RA   

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          30           20           20           

PRECIP DURATION       7            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   1 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   2 PM         CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.35         0.03         0.03         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3700                      4900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 25                     W 21         

DISPERSION                         36 FAIR                   52 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

40S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO

LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-152115-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

306 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      24-29 (+6)   29-34 (-11)  20-25        37-42        

RH % (24H TREND)      84-89 (-13)  40-45 (-20)  86-91        50-55        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW 16 G32                 W  6 G15     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW 15 G32    W  5 G17     W  9 G17     

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW/RAIN    SNOW SHOWERS SNOW         SNOW/FZ RA   

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          60           20           20           

PRECIP DURATION       6            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   1 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   2 PM         CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.30         0.10         0.03         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3900                      5300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 30                     W 24         

DISPERSION                         29 FAIR                   53 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST

AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S

TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO

LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-152115-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

306 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      20-25 (+1)   34-39 (-8)   21-26        41-46        

RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (-4)   27-32 (-34)  84-89        42-47        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW 10 G23                 W  6 G15     

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  8 G17    NW  8 G20    LGT/VAR      W  8 G18     

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW/RAIN    SNOW SHOWERS SNOW         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          60           10           0            

PRECIP DURATION       6            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   1 AM                      

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   2 PM         7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.38         0.08         0.01         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3800                      5300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 24                     W 26         

DISPERSION                         13 GEN POOR               49 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

40S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER

60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER

60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-152115-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

306 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      22-27 (+2)   34-39 (-13)  21-26        46-51        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (-2)  35-40 (-22)  85-90        44-49        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW 11 G20                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  8 G18    NW  8 G19    LGT/VAR      W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW/RAIN    NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       5                                                   

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                                                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING                                          

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.32         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2800                      5300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N 24                      W 22         

DISPERSION                         13 GEN POOR               59 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. LIGHT WINDS. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING

BECOMING LIGHT. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

40S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO

UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER

60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-152115-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

306 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      23-28 (+4)   35-40 (-14)  21-26        47-52        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (-3)  36-41 (-16)  83-88        39-44        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW 13 G24                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  6        NW 11 G23    LGT/VAR      W  7         

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW/RAIN    NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       5                                                   

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                                                

PRECIP END            7 AM                                                

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.27         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2900                      5500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N 30                      W 22         

DISPERSION                         17 GEN POOR               62 GOOD      

MAX LVORI                          3                         4            



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 30. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING

BECOMING LIGHT. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO

UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO

MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-152115-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

306 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      26-31 (+5)   32-37 (-12)  21-26        42-47        

RH % (24H TREND)      81-86 (-16)  41-46 (-21)  95-100       50-55        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW 11 G19                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  9 G19    LGT/VAR      W  7         

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW/RAIN    SNOW SHOWERS SNOW         SNOW/FZ RA   

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          30           20           20           

PRECIP DURATION       5            1            1            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   1 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   2 PM         CONTINUING   1 PM         

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.32         0.03         0.03         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3500                      4800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 21                     W 21         

DISPERSION                         37 FAIR                   59 GEN GOOD  



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

LIGHT WINDS. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE

MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING

LIGHT. 

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER

40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER

60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-152115-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

306 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        PCLDY        CLOUDY       PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      23-28 (-1)   34-39 (-10)  24-29        45-50        

RH % (24H TREND)      86-91 (-8)   39-44 (-25)  87-92        44-49        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  8 G17                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  7 G15    NW  6        LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW/RAIN    SNOW SHOWERS SNOW/FZ RA   FRZ RAIN     

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          30           20           0            

PRECIP DURATION       7            1            1                         

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   1 AM                      

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   10 AM        7 AM                      

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.35         0.02         0.02         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2900                      4800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 18                     W 21         

DISPERSION                         26 FAIR                   63 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 30. LIGHT WINDS. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO

UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID

30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING

BECOMING LIGHT. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER

60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER

60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-152115-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

306 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 /206 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2014/



                      TONIGHT      SAT          SAT NIGHT    SUN          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      22-27 (-2)   35-40 (-12)  24-29        48-53        

RH % (24H TREND)      85-90 (-11)  44-49 (-14)  84-89        41-46        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  9 G19                 LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW 10 G24    NW  6        LGT/VAR      W  5         

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW/RAIN    NONE         NONE         NONE         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           0            0            0            

PRECIP DURATION       5                                                   

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM                                                

PRECIP END            7 AM                                                

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.28         0.00         0.00         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2300                      4900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N 20                      W 20         

DISPERSION                         20 GEN POOR               63 GOOD      



REMARKS...NONE.



.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

LIGHT WINDS. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO

LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS NEAR 40.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S

TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER

40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO

LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$













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