

364 

FNUS54 KMRX 112009

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

310 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014



...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING...



.DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UP ALONG THE 

ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE 

SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. WITH COLD 

AIR IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...SIGNIFICANT 

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER 

MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE 

END OF THE WEEK.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-122100-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

310 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      18-23 (+2)   31-36 (0)    22-27        34-39        

RH % (24H TREND)      81-86 (-10)  64-69 (+26)  88-93        53-58        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NE  5        E  5         LGT/VAR      SW  6        

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SNOW         SNOW         SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            80           90           30           

PRECIP DURATION                    5            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN                       7 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 PM        

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.17         0.35         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3000                      2800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SE 12                     NW 13        

DISPERSION                         9 POOR                    8 POOR       



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S

TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

LOWER TO MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN 

THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 

10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-122100-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

310 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      20-25 (+1)   29-34 (-2)   21-26        33-38        

RH % (24H TREND)      82-87 (-1)   64-69 (+13)  88-93        53-58        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  6                     NW  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      E  6         LGT/VAR      W  7         

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW         SNOW         SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           100          100          30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            6            7            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          4 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 PM        

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.33         0.44         0.03         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3200                      3300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SE 13                     NW 17        

DISPERSION                         5 VERY POOR               8 POOR       



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

20S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN 

THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-122100-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

310 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      23-28 (0)    29-34 (-3)   22-27        33-38        

RH % (24H TREND)      84-89 (0)    66-71 (+7)   91-96        54-59        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  5                     LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      E  5         LGT/VAR      W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW         SNOW         SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           100          100          30           

PRECIP DURATION       1            7            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          10 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 PM        

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.43         0.30         0.02         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3500                      3500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 12                      NW 13        

DISPERSION                         4 VERY POOR               5 VERY POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 18 TO 26. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 

15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN 

THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO 

MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 30S. 

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. EAST WINDS 

UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-122100-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

310 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      26-31 (-1)   31-36 (-5)   25-30        35-40        

RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (+9)   71-76 (+8)   92-97        52-57        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  5         

PRECIP TYPE           SLEET        SNOW         SNOW         SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           100          90           20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            8            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          10 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 PM        

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.05         0.50         0.25         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2700                      3000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SE 12                     NW 10        

DISPERSION                         6 VERY POOR               8 POOR       



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 

TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 

IN THE 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN 

THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S 

TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 

30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-122100-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

310 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY       PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      26-31 (-2)   30-35 (-6)   25-30        35-40        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+7)  72-77 (+3)   89-94        52-57        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  E  5                      NW  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  6         

PRECIP TYPE           SLEET        SNOW         SNOW         SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           100          100          20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            8            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          10 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 PM        

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.07         0.54         0.29         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3000                      3200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SE 12                     NW 13        

DISPERSION                         8 POOR                    11 POOR      

MAX LVORI                          7                         4            



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 

MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 

IN THE 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN 

THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

40S TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 

30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 

40. HIGHS IN THE 50S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-122100-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

310 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        CLOUDY       CLOUDY       PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      21-26 (+2)   32-37 (-3)   23-28        36-41        

RH % (24H TREND)      84-89 (+1)   65-70 (+27)  87-92        53-58        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  E  5                      LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      E  5         LGT/VAR      SW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SNOW         SNOW         SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            90           90           30           

PRECIP DURATION                    5            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN                       CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 PM        

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.28         0.34         0.02         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2800                      2600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SE 12                     NW 10        

DISPERSION                         14 GEN POOR               10 POOR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST 

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

20S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN 

THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS 

THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 

30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-122100-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

310 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      23-28 (+3)   32-37 (-3)   24-29        37-42        

RH % (24H TREND)      85-90 (+7)   65-70 (+28)  90-95        53-58        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NE  5        LGT/VAR      SW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW         SNOW         SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           80           80           20           

PRECIP DURATION       1            5            5            1            

PRECIP BEGIN          4 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   12 PM        

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.30         0.18         0.01         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2200                      2800         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                E 12                      W  9         

DISPERSION                         10 POOR                   13 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS 

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S 

TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40. 

HIGHS IN THE 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-122100-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

310 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 /210 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/



                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      26-31 (+1)   32-37 (-4)   25-30        38-43        

RH % (24H TREND)      84-89 (+14)  68-73 (+24)  95-100       51-56        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  5        

PRECIP TYPE           SLEET        SNOW         SNOW         SNOW SHOWERS 

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           90           90           0            

PRECIP DURATION       1            8            3                         

PRECIP BEGIN          1 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING                

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.44         0.16         0.00         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2100                      3100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                E 12                      NW  9        

DISPERSION                         10 POOR                   16 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST 

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 

40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 

TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 

40S. HIGHS IN THE 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 

MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$







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