

270 

FNUS54 KMRX 102028

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

330 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014



.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER 

VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN 

TENNESSEE BORDER AREAS. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN 

MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING 

THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT.





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-112115-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

330 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      16-21 (-8)   30-35 (+2)   21-26        34-39        

RH % (24H TREND)      86-91 (-8)   43-48 (-26)  83-88        56-61        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SE  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      N  5         NE  5        LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         SNOW         SNOW         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            20           60           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    1 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.01         0.13         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      3500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N  6                      S  9         

DISPERSION                         10 POOR                   11 POOR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP 

TO 10 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO 

LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP 

TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 

HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 

LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S 

TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 

HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-112115-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

330 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      19-24 (-6)   30-35 (+1)   21-26        32-37        

RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (+1)   44-49 (-25)  85-90        58-63        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SE  8 G16    

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SE  8 G16    

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW         SNOW         SNOW         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           20           30           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.02         0.04         0.27         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      3600         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW  6                     S  9         

DISPERSION                         6 VERY POOR               7 POOR       



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP 

TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO 

LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 

TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 

LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S 

TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 

HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.



$$



TNZ072-074-112115-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

330 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      23-28 (-2)   30-35 (0)    22-27        32-37        

RH % (24H TREND)      87-92 (+1)   52-57 (-14)  85-90        64-69        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW         SNOW         SNOW         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           30           30           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            3            

PRECIP BEGIN          4 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.05         0.04         0.32         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4100                      3900         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW  6                     S  9         

DISPERSION                         5 VERY POOR               6 VERY POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 

LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 

TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 

LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST 

WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 

LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-112115-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

330 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      26-31 (-2)   32-37 (-3)   24-29        34-39        

RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (+3)   61-66 (-6)   85-90        65-70        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SE  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NE  6        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW         SNOW         SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           50           40           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            4            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.10         0.04         0.38         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3700                      3100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N  6                      SE  9        

DISPERSION                         8 POOR                    8 POOR       



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTH 

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP 

TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 

MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S 

TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 

30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-112115-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

330 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      27-32 (-1)   33-38 (-4)   24-29        34-39        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (-1)  61-66 (-7)   85-90        65-70        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SE  6        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW/RAIN    SNOW         SNOW         SNOW         

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           60           40           80           

PRECIP DURATION       1            3            1            5            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.12         0.07         0.46         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      3300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W  6                      SE  9        

DISPERSION                         9 POOR                    8 POOR       

MAX LVORI                          5                         5            



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 

10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO 

LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. WEST WINDS LESS 

THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 

UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. 

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S 

TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 

30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 

MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-112115-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

330 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      20-25 (-7)   32-37 (0)    23-28        35-40        

RH % (24H TREND)      84-89 (+1)   44-49 (-19)  85-90        56-61        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SE  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      NE  5        SE  6        

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         SNOW         SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            30           70           

PRECIP DURATION                                 1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN                                    1 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.02         0.20         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3800                      3000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N  6                      SE  9        

DISPERSION                         11 POOR                   13 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 20S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO 

LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 

LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S 

TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 

30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 

MPH. 



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-112115-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

330 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      20-25 (-5)   32-37 (0)    25-30        36-41        

RH % (24H TREND)      80-85 (-8)   41-46 (-18)  85-90        62-67        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  N  5                      LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     N  5         N  5         NE  6        LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           NONE         SNOW         SNOW         SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            10           20           60           

PRECIP DURATION                    1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN                       CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.01         0.02         0.19         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               4                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3500                      3100         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NE  8                     SE  9        

DISPERSION                         15 GEN POOR               15 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 

30S TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 

MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S 

TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 

30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 

MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-112115-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

330 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014 /230 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014/



                      TONIGHT      TUE          TUE NIGHT    WED          



CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      24-29 (-4)   33-38 (-2)   26-31        36-41        

RH % (24H TREND)      73-78 (-11)  45-50 (-8)   85-90        65-70        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  N  6                      LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     N  7         NE  5        NE  6        LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SNOW         SNOW         SNOW         SNOW/RAIN    

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           40           30           70           

PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.05         0.04         0.28         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3300                      3000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NE  8                     SE  9        

DISPERSION                         15 GEN POOR               15 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST 

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 

TO MID 40S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST 

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW 

SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S 

TO MID 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 

30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$







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