

834 

FNUS54 KMRX 021941

FWFMRX



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST

VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

241 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014



.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION 

...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA. A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND 

FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY 

MORNING...ACROSS THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND THE CUMBERLAND 

MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 

DEVELOPS QUICKLY ON TUESDAY...OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 

REGION AND SPREADS RAIN NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. 

HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH 

MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...SO CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL WINTRY WEATHER 

ARE NOT THAT GREAT FOR NOW. 





VAZ001-002-005-006-008-032045-

JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-

241 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      33-38 (-1)   41-46 (-10)  28-33        48-53        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+20) 67-72 (-2)   95-100       61-66        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  N  8 G17                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      N  5         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      

PRECIP TYPE           SLEET/RAIN   FRZ RAIN     NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          80           0            60           

PRECIP DURATION       7            2                         2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                10 AM        

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   12 PM                     CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         1.06         0.14         0.00         0.22         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         4            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3500                      3000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N 12                      SE 10        

DISPERSION                         15 GEN POOR               8 POOR       



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S.

WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER.

LOWS 19 TO 27. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN...SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING

RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN...SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING

RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WEST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ018-041-043-045-047-032045-

NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

241 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      36-41 (+3)   42-47 (-7)   30-35        47-52        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+22) 64-69 (+1)   95-100       58-63        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  NW  5                     SE  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  5         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SE  8 G17    

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          80           0            60           

PRECIP DURATION       7            1                         2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   12 PM                     CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         0.95         0.16         0.00         0.13         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      3700         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 14                      SE 13        

DISPERSION                         14 GEN POOR               10 POOR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.

COLDER. LOWS IN THE 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. EAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND

SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND

SNOW. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ072-074-032045-

TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-

241 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      37-42 (+5)   43-48 (-7)   35-40        48-53        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+25) 57-62 (-8)   84-89        59-64        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SE  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  9 G26     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SE  8 G22    

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          70           20           80           

PRECIP DURATION       6            1            1            5            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   4 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         1.22         0.11         0.01         0.21         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4300                      4000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 13                      S 15         

DISPERSION                         14 GEN POOR               12 POOR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.

COLDER. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHEAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND

SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. EAST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND

SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS AROUND 20.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 



$$



TNZ087-102-032045-

SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-

241 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      39-44 (+9)   47-52 (-8)   36-41        49-54        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+13) 57-62 (-8)   95-100       64-69        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  N  6                      SE  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8 G21     N  6         LGT/VAR      SE  8 G20    

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          60           20           80           

PRECIP DURATION       6            1            1            5            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   4 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         1.43         0.10         0.01         0.24         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3300                      3000         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 12                     SE 15        

DISPERSION                         12 POOR                   12 POOR      



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO

LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW.

LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. LOWS

IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS UP TO

10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. 



$$



NCZ060-061-032045-

NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-

241 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLDY        CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      39-44 (+11)  48-53 (-7)   37-42        50-55        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+15) 60-65 (-6)   91-96        65-70        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SE  5        

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S  8 G21     N  5         LGT/VAR      SE  7 G16    

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          70           20           80           

PRECIP DURATION       6            1            1            5            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   4 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         1.73         0.11         0.01         0.21         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3300                      3200         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 15                      SE 14        

DISPERSION                         14 GEN POOR               11 POOR      

MAX LVORI                          6                         5            



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO MID 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO

LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 40S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS

THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. LOWS

IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS UP

TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-032045-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-

241 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY        

TEMP (24H TREND)      36-41 (+3)   44-49 (-7)   29-34        50-55        

RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+20) 61-66 (-3)   95-100       56-61        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  N  5                      LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SE  5        

PRECIP TYPE           FRZ RAIN     FRZ RAIN     NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          70           0            60           

PRECIP DURATION       6            2                         2            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                7 AM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   12 PM                     CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         1.08         0.12         0.00         0.20         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         3            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3300                      2500         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N 12                      SE 10        

DISPERSION                         18 GEN POOR               9 POOR       



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS NEAR 40. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE 20S TO

LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND

SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND

SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID

20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.



$$



TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-032045-

EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-

241 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      35-40 (0)    44-49 (-7)   30-35        48-53        

RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (+15)  58-63 (-15)  93-98        63-68        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  N  8 G16                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NE  6 G17    NE  6        LGT/VAR      SE  5        

PRECIP TYPE           SLEET/RAIN   FRZ RAIN     NONE         SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          60           0            80           

PRECIP DURATION       6            2                         5            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING                7 AM         

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   12 PM                     CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         1.23         0.06         0.00         0.33         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               2                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 3000                      2300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NE 12                     SE 10        

DISPERSION                         17 GEN POOR               9 POOR       



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40S

TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO

LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHEAST

WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. EAST WINDS

LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND

SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID

20S. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$



TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-032045-

CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-

241 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 /141 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014/



                      TONIGHT      MON          MON NIGHT    TUE          



CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        PCLDY        CLOUDY       

TEMP (24H TREND)      39-44 (+5)   48-53 (-8)   32-37        49-54        

RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (+3)   51-56 (-18)  95-100       66-71        

20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  N  9 G16                  LGT/VAR      

20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NE  5        NE  7        NE  5        SE  8 G18    

PRECIP TYPE           RAIN         RAIN         SHOWERS      SHOWERS      

CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          40           20           80           

PRECIP DURATION       6            1            1            5            

PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   4 AM         CONTINUING   

PRECIP END            CONTINUING   12 PM        CONTINUING   CONTINUING   

PRECIP AMOUNT         1.34         0.04         0.01         0.36         

LAL                   1            1            1            1            

LASI                               3                         2            

MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 2700                      2300         

TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N 12                      SE 16        

DISPERSION                         16 GEN POOR               15 GEN POOR  



REMARKS...NONE.



.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO

LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH

AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

.FRIDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW.

LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN

10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS

UP TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 



$$













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